WO2018144009A1

WO2018144009A1 - Power management methods for a circuit of a substation, and related apparatuses and computer program products

Info

Publication number: WO2018144009A1
Application number: PCT/US2017/016432
Authority: WO
Inventors: James D. GIFFIN II; Jacob A. RICHARDSON; Benjamin R. YEOMANS; Andrew KLING
Original assignee: Duke Energy Corporation
Priority date: 2017-02-03
Filing date: 2017-02-03
Publication date: 2018-08-09

Abstract

Methods of power management for a circuit of a substation are provided. The methods include identifying occurrence of an outage on the circuit of the substation. The methods include selecting the circuit where the outage occurred. Moreover, the methods include using a cold load pickup estimation model that uses real-time, circuit-specific parameters for the circuit to perform cold load pickup analysis on the circuit, in response to selecting the circuit. The methods then include restoring current to the circuit. Related apparatuses and computer program products are also provided.

Description

POWER MANAGEMENT METHODS FOR A CIRCUIT OF A SUBSTATION, AND RELATED APPARATUSES AND COMPUTER PROGRAM PRODUCTS

CLAIM OF PRIORITY

[0001] The present application claims the benefit of U.S. Provisional Patent

Application Serial No. 62/454,119, filed February 3, 2017, the disclosure of which is hereby incorporated herein in its entirety by reference.

FIELD

[0002] The present disclosure relates to methods of electrical power management for a substation.

BACKGROUND

[0003] Cold Load Pickup (CLPU) is a phenomenon that occurs when a distribution circuit is reenergized following an extended electrical outage. When a load is restored, the load demand may be greater than the level before the outage, often due to a loss of load diversification. Unfortunately, estimates of CLPU are often imprecise, which can have various consequences. For example, overestimating CLPU can result in unnecessarily- extended outage duration while engineers prepare additional capacity. On the other hand, underestimating CLPU can result in a returning load that (i) may trigger outages after reenergization, (ii) may produce outages on other circuits affecting a new set of customers, (iii) may damage and stress protective devices and conductors, and/or (iv) may increase the risk of safety issues.

SUMMARY

[0004] It should be appreciated that this Summary is provided to introduce a selection of concepts in a simplified form, the concepts being further described below in the Detailed Description. This Summary is not intended to identify key features or essential features of this disclosure, nor is it intended to limit the scope of the present inventive concepts.

[0005] Various embodiments of the present inventive concepts include a power management method for a circuit of a substation. The method may include identifying occurrence of an outage on the circuit of the substation. The method may include selecting the circuit where the outage occurred. The method may include using a cold load pickup estimation model that uses real-time, circuit-specific parameters for the circuit to perform cold load pickup analysis on the circuit, in response to selecting the circuit. The method may then include restoring current to the circuit.

[0006] According to various embodiments, restoring current to the circuit may include providing a value, based on the cold load pickup analysis by the cold load pickup estimation model, to a distribution management system. Restoring current may include testing a portion of the circuit, after providing to the distribution management system the value that is based on the cold load pickup analysis by the cold load pickup estimation model. Moreover, restoring current may include providing current to other portions of the circuit, in response to the portion of the circuit passing the test.

[0007] In various embodiments, selecting the circuit where the outage occurred may include selecting the substation via a graphical user interface, and selecting the circuit via the graphical user interface after selecting the substation. In some embodiments, selecting the substation via the graphical user interface may include selecting the substation from a list of a plurality of substations that is displayed on the graphical user interface. Alternatively, selecting the substation via the graphical user interface may include selecting the substation from a map of a plurality of substations that is displayed on the graphical user interface.

[0008] According to various embodiments, the method may include automatically inputting the real-time, circuit-specific parameters for the circuit to the cold load pickup estimation model, in response to selecting the circuit where the outage occurred. The realtime, circuit-specific parameters that are input to the cold load pickup estimation model may include demographic data of the circuit, which may include a ratio of commercial and/or industrial customers to residential customers on the circuit. In some embodiments, the realtime, circuit-specific parameters that are input to the cold load pickup estimation model may include weather and time of day.

[0009] In various embodiments, the method may include, before identifying the occurrence of the outage on the circuit, training the cold load pickup estimation model using outage data from a plurality of substations over a plurality of years.

[0010] An apparatus, according to various embodiments, may be provided. The apparatus may include a processor. Moreover, the apparatus may include a memory coupled to the processor and including computer readable program code that when executed by the processor causes the processor to perform operations including selecting a distribution circuit where an outage occurred. The operations may include using a cold load pickup estimation model that uses real-time, circuit-specific parameters for the selected distribution circuit to output an estimated value of cold load pickup for the selected distribution circuit. Moreover, the operations may then include providing a command to restore current to the selected distribution circuit.

[0011] According to various embodiments, the processor may be configured to input the real-time, circuit-specific parameters for the selected distribution circuit to the cold load pickup estimation model. In some embodiments, the real-time, circuit-specific parameters may include demographic data of the selected distribution circuit. For example, the demographic data may include a ratio of commercial and/or industrial customers to residential customers on the selected distribution circuit. Additionally or alternatively, the real-time, circuit-specific parameters may include weather, day of week, and time of day.

[0012] A computer program product, according to various embodiments, may be provided. The computer program product may include a computer readable storage medium including computer readable program code embodied in the medium therewith. The computer readable program code may include computer readable program code configured to select a circuit where an outage occurred. Moreover, the computer readable program code may include computer readable program code configured to use a cold load pickup estimation model that uses real-time, circuit-specific parameters for the selected circuit to output an estimated value of cold load pickup for the selected circuit.

[0013] According to various embodiments, the computer readable program code may include computer readable program code configured to input the real-time, circuit-specific parameters for the selected circuit to the cold load pickup estimation model. The real-time, circuit-specific parameters may include demographic data of the selected circuit. For example, the real-time, circuit-specific parameters may include temperature, wind, and time (e.g., hour) of day.

[0014] In various embodiments, the estimated value of cold load pickup for the selected circuit may include a real-time, circuit-specific multiplier by which a previous load of the selected circuit is to be multiplied. Moreover, the computer readable program code may include computer readable program code configured to provide the real-time, circuit- specific multiplier to a distribution management system.

[0015] It is noted that aspects of the present inventive concepts described with respect to one embodiment may be incorporated in a different embodiment although not specifically described relative thereto. That is, all embodiments and/or features of any embodiment can be combined in any way and/or combination. Applicant(s) reserve(s) the right to change any originally filed claim or file any new claim accordingly, including the right to be able to amend any originally filed claim to depend from and/or incorporate any feature of any other claim although not originally claimed in that manner. These and other objects and/or aspects of the present inventive concepts are explained in detail below.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0016] The accompanying drawings, which form a part of the specification, illustrate various embodiments of the present inventive concepts. The drawings and description together serve to fully explain embodiments of the present inventive concepts.

[0017] Figure 1 A is a schematic illustration of substations and distribution circuits of a grid, according to various embodiments.

[0018] Figure IB is a detailed schematic view of the substations and distribution circuits of Figure 1A, according to various embodiments.

[0019] Figure 1C is a detailed schematic view of a customer premise of Figure IB, according to various embodiments.

[0020] Figure ID is a block diagram of a communication node of Figure 1 A or Figure IB, according to various embodiments.

[0021] Figure IE is a block diagram that illustrates details of an example processor and memory that may be used in accordance with various embodiments.

[0022] Figures 2A-2C are flowcharts illustrating operations of power management for a substation of Figure 1A, according to various embodiments.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0023] An engineer of an electric utility can use a lookup table to determine a Cold Load Pickup (CLPU) estimate that is based on the duration of an outage. For example, the CLPU lookup table may include a column of outage durations and a corresponding column of estimated multiples of the previous load. As an example, the CLPU lookup table may indicate that the multiple of the previous load is 1.3 for an outage duration of 10 minutes, 2 for an outage duration of 30 minutes, and 2.3 for an outage duration of 1 hour. The CLPU lookup table estimates, however, may be very conservative at longer outage durations. Also, the CLPU lookup table estimates do not account for real-time conditions. Nor are such estimates tailored to the particular substation circuit experiencing the outage. Rather, if the engineer believes that the multiple from the CLPU lookup table may require an adjustment up or down, the engineer may guess at how much the multiple should be adjusted. As an example, the engineer may adjust the multiple based on a gut-feeling approximation/guess due to whether a season is hot or cold.

[0024] Various embodiments described herein, however, may improve the accuracy, speed, and precision of CLPU estimation/prediction after an outage on a substation circuit. For example, whereas a CLPU lookup table estimate may be based solely on outage duration, various embodiments herein may use a CLPU estimation model to which a plurality of realtime, circuit-specific parameters/inputs are applied. These inputs affect the CLPU multiple that the model outputs. As used herein, the term "outage" may refer to all three phases being at zero amps on a distribution circuit breaker at a substation, and may have a duration between 5 minutes and 4 hours. In some embodiments, the term "outage" (or "extended outage") may refer to zero amps for a duration of at least 15 minutes.

[0025] Examples of real-time, circuit-specific inputs to the CLPU estimation model include circuit demographics, outage duration, season, time of day, weekday versus weekend, humidity, precipitation, wind speed, temperature, and/or other weather data. Circuit demographics may include circuit details such as the ratio/percentage of

commercial/industrial customers versus residential customers on the substation circuit, as a CLPU spike may be higher with a residential customer base because industrial customers are more likely to have backup power. Accordingly, the model can account for this. Circuit demographics may additionally or alternatively include solar generation capacity (e.g., in kilowatt hours (kWh)) of the circuit and/or load of the circuit, such as a multi-day (e.g., 30- day) load factor of the circuit.

[0026] The CLPU estimation model may be a random-forest model, and various embodiments herein may include applying real-time, circuit-specific parameters/inputs to the random-forest model. The model may then be used to perform analysis based on the selected circuit. The model is faster and more precise than an lookup table or calculations by hand. For example, the CLPU estimation model uses more inputs than merely the outage duration that a CLPU lookup table is based on. Moreover, unlike the CLPU estimation model, a duration lookup table is generic rather than circuit-specific. As for speed, if a utility attempted to manually obtain detailed data of conditions in several outage locations, such efforts could take hours, which would be inappropriately slow for responding to outages. The CLPU estimation model is significantly faster. [0027] By providing an accurate cold load estimate, the CLPU estimation model can increase the likelihood that power does not stay down when it could be up. The accurate cold load estimate provided by the CLPU estimation model can also improve determinations about whether utility trucks should go out to address power issues. Accordingly, a utility that uses the CLPU estimation model can reduce incidents of unnecessarily sending out trucks.

Moreover, due to its accuracy for determining when (e.g., in 30 minutes versus 1 hour) the utility can safely turn on power for a circuit, the CLPU estimation model can reduce the risk of turning power on too soon and reduce circuit stress, thus also reducing the risk of circuit failure. Accordingly, by better predicting cold load pickups, the CLPU estimation model of various embodiments of the present inventive concepts can protect a utility's circuits, help the utility better allocate its resources, and improve its delivery of power to customers.

[0028] Referring now to Figure 1 A, a schematic illustration is provided of substations S and distribution circuits DC of a grid 100, according to various embodiments. The grid 100 may be a utility grid such as an electric grid. Although two substations S are illustrated in Figure 1A, the grid 100 may, in some embodiments, include more than two (e.g., three, four, five, dozens, hundreds, or more) substations S. Similarly, although only a few distribution circuits DC are illustrated in Figure 1 A, a substation S may, in some embodiments, have three, four, five, dozens, or more distribution circuits DC. A distribution circuit DC may be any circuit from a substation S on downstream.

[0029] One or more of the substations S may communicate with a communication network 115. For example, a distribution control center DCC of an electric utility may include an apparatus, such as a node N, that receives data from and transmits control commands to one or more of the substations S. Additionally or alternatively, a

communication node C in the field may receive data from, and/or transmit control commands to, one or more of the substations S via the communication network 115.

[0030] One or more communication nodes C may communicate with one or more electric grid devices E that are connected to the grid 100, using wireless communications (e.g., 3G/LTE, other cellular, WiFi, etc.) or wired communications (e.g., Power Line Carrier (PLC), Ethernet, serial, Universal Serial Bus (USB), etc.). An electric grid device E may be, for example, an electric utility meter, a transformer, a light (e.g., a street light), an electric grid control device, an electric grid protection device, a recloser, a line sensor, a weather sensor, an Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) device, an analog or digital sensor connected to an electric utility asset, an electric generator, an electric turbine, an electric boiler, an electric vehicle, a home appliance, a battery storage device, a capacitor device, a solar power device, a smart generation device, an intelligent switching device, an emission monitoring device, or a voltage regulator. In some embodiments, the electric grid device E may be on a distribution line of the grid 100.

[0031] Moreover, one or more of the communication nodes C may communicate with the distribution control center DCC, or with a head end system of an electric utility data center, via the communication network 115. The communication network 115 may include one or more wireless or wired communication networks, such as a local area network (e.g., Ethernet or WiFi) or a Wide Area Network (e.g., a cellular network, Ethernet, or a fiber (such as fiber-optic) network).

[0032] Referring now to Figure IB, a detailed schematic view is illustrated of the substations S and distribution circuits DC of Figure 1A, according to various embodiments. A substation S may be an electric utility substation that includes one or more transformers T. The substation S may also include a communication node C, which may communicate via the communication network 115. In some embodiments, the communication node C may control operations of the substation S.

[0033] Each distribution circuit DC may include one or more distribution

transformers DT, and each distribution transformer DT may control a voltage level of power that is transmitted to one or more customer premises CP. In particular, a distribution transformer DT serves a customer premise CP and may be the closest transformer of the grid 100 to the customer premise CP. The distribution transformer DT may be underground, mounted on a concrete pad, mounted on a utility pole, or otherwise fixed at a location that is upstream from the customer premise CP. A communication node C may optionally be adjacent (e.g., attached to) the distribution transformer DT. Alternatively, functionality of a communication node C may be integrated with the distribution transformer DT.

[0034] A customer premise CP may be a premise of a customer of an electric utility. For example, a customer premise CP may be a house, apartment, office, or other building, location, or structure, for which an electric utility meter could be provided for the customer. A customer premise CP may thus be a structure such as a billboard, as well as a home or a business. Accordingly, the term "premise," as used herein, may be interchangeable with the term "premises," in that either term may be used herein to refer to a building, part of a building, or other structure for which an electric utility meter may be provided. [0035] A single distribution transformer DT may provide power to one or more customers in a given area. For example, in an urban area, a plurality of homes may be fed off of a single distribution transformer DT. Rural distribution, on the other hand, may use one distribution transformer DT per customer. Moreover, a large commercial or industrial complex may rely on multiple distribution transformers DT.

[0036] A distribution transformer DT has a low voltage secondary (e.g., output) side that distributes power to one or more customers. For example, in the United States, the low voltage secondary side of the distribution transformer DT may be configured for a 240/120- Volt system, and three wires (including one neutral wire) may be fed from the low voltage secondary side to the customer premise CP.

[0037] Referring now to Figure 1C, a detailed schematic view of a customer premise CP of Figure IB is illustrated, according to various embodiments. A low voltage secondary service connection 107 of the distribution transformer DT is input to the customer premise CP. Although the low voltage secondary service connection 107 is illustrated as a single wire, the inventive entity appreciates that three wires (including one neutral wire) may be used. In some embodiments, the low voltage secondary service connection 107 may be configured for a 240/120-Volt system, and may be input to electric utility meter circuitry at the customer premise CP. Moreover, in some embodiments, the customer premise CP may be a commercial or industrial customer premise, and the low voltage secondary service connection 107 may use a higher voltage than 240 Volts (e.g., 277/480 Volts, for

commercial/industrial applications). Accordingly, although the low voltage secondary service connection 107 may provide single-phase functionality for residential applications, the inventive entity appreciates that the low voltage secondary service connection 107 may optionally provide higher voltages than 120/240 Volts for three-phase applications.

[0038] As an example, the customer premise CP may be a house of a customer, and the low voltage secondary service connection 107 may be input to an electric utility meter that is mounted on the side of the house. For a customer premise CP that is a home of the customer, the load at a connection into the customer premise CP may be between 0 Volt- Amperes and 15,000 Volt- Amperes. In some higher-power environments (e.g., three-phase applications), however, the range may extend above 15,000 Volt- Amperes. Also, the load current may be sinusoidal, 60 Hertz. A substation S and a distribution transformer DT may handle much larger loads (e.g., 50,000 Volt-Amperes or higher) than the load that is at the connection into the customer premise CP. [0039] The low voltage secondary service connection 107 may provide electricity from the grid 100 to at least one device or appliance that is at the customer premise CP. For example, at least one appliance A may be at the customer premise CP and be powered by the grid 100 through the low voltage secondary service connection 107. An appliance A may be a refrigerator, dishwasher, laundry machine, oven, or any other large machine that uses electricity to perform, for example, cooking, cleaning, or food preservation functions in a household, institutional, commercial, or industrial setting. Although Figure 1C illustrates one appliance A, in some embodiments, two, three, four, five, or more appliances may be at the customer premise CP.

[0040] Additionally or alternatively to the appliance(s) A, various devices that use electricity may be at the customer premise CP. For example, consumer electronics and heating/cooling devices and/or systems may be at the customer premise CP. Moreover, in some embodiments, the customer premise CP may be a billboard, and the grid 100 may provide power for lights or an electronic display of the billboard.

[0041] Moreover, at least one distributed energy resource DER may optionally be at the customer premise CP. A distributed energy resource DER may be any type of generator. For example, a distributed energy resource DER may be a battery, a solar (i.e., photovoltaic (PV)) generation system, or a diesel generator. Other examples of a distributed energy resource DER include a flywheel, a controllable load, a capacitor, and any other energy storage system. Additionally or alternatively, one or more Direct Current (DC) devices may optionally be at the customer premise CP. For example, the DC device(s) may include an electric vehicle charging station, a Light Emitting Diode (LED) lighting system, or any other DC device. In some embodiments, a communication network 105 at the customer premise CP may provide communications for the appliance(s) A and/or the distributed energy resource(s) DER. The communication network 105 may optionally provide communications to a communication node C and/or to another communication network, such as the communication network 115 of Figures 1 A and IB.

[0042] Referring now to Figure ID, a block diagram is provided of a communication node C of Figure 1A or Figure IB, according to various embodiments. The communication node C may include a processor 150, a network interface 160, and a memory 170. The processor 150 may be coupled to the network interface 160. The processor 150 may be configured to communicate with other communication nodes C, an electric grid device E, and/or devices at the distribution control center DCC, a substation S, a customer premise CP, and/or an electric utility data center, via the network interface 160.

[0043] For example, the network interface 160 may include one or more wireless interfaces 161 (e.g., 3G/LTE, other cellular, WiFi, Global Positioning System (GPS) interfaces, etc.) and one or more physical interfaces 162 (e.g., Ethernet, serial, USB interfaces, etc.). Moreover, the network interface 160 may optionally include one or more power line interfaces 163 (e.g., Low Voltage (LV) or Mid Voltage (MV) PLC).

[0044] Accordingly, the communication node C may, in some embodiments, have multiple integrated communications options. For example, the communication node C may provide PLC, WiFi, Zigbee, Z-wave communications, or other communications via the network interface 160 into a customer premise CP (e.g., a customer's home), and may provide cellular communications or other communications to the grid 100. As an example, the communication node C (or the node N) may communicate with a substation S to track and/or control the status of one or more distribution circuits DC of the substation S. In some embodiments, the communication node C (or the node N) may be configured to perform and/or command the operations that are illustrated in the flowcharts of Figures 2A-2C.

[0045] Moreover, the communication node C may have a modular design that allows the communication node C to use a variety of communications technologies, and to therefore not be limited exclusively to one communications technology, such as PLC communications. The communication node C may be referred to as having a modular design because communications circuitry of the network interface 160 may include integrated circuits provided on respective plug-and-play cards that can be easily added to and removed from (e.g., removed and replaced with a new and/or different card providing improved/different functionality). As an example, the communications circuitry of the network interface 160 may include a PLC card that may be replaced with or supplemented by a card that provides WiFi communications. Various other types of cards may also be used that are

modular/interchangeable from one communication node C to the next.

[0046] Referring still to Figure ID, the memory 170 may be coupled to the processor 150. The memory 170 may also store instructions/algorithms used by the processor 150. For example, the memory 170 of the communication node C may include one or more algorithms that operate and/or train a CLPU estimation model. Moreover, the node N at the distribution control center DCC may include any of the circuitry/functionality of the communication node C. For example, the node N at the distribution control center DCC may have a memory that includes one or more algorithms that operate and/or train a CLPU estimation model.

[0047] The communication node C may include core hardware components such as a power supply, 10 MHz or higher speed processor(s), and 1 Megabyte (MB) or more of RAM. The communication node C may also include core applications, such as CPU/memory/OS management applications, port/device drivers, router/Internet Protocol (IP) services, network management services, basic protocol support, SCAD A, custom Application Programming Interface (API)/applications, and device security services. Moreover, the communication node C may include virtual applications, such as a virtual machine (e.g., a Java Virtual Machine), message bus(es), message broker(s), protocol adapters, mini-SCADA, open- standards API, and third-party applications (e.g., security/analytics applications). For example, the communication node C may support Distributed Network Protocol (DNP) (e.g., DNP 3.0), Modbus, and Message Queue Telemetry Transport (MQTT) protocols. The core applications may use such software as C++/Linux, and the virtual applications may use such software as Java/Linux.

[0048] The communication node C (or node N) may optionally include a Graphical User Interface (GUI) 190. For example, an engineer at the distribution control center DCC may use the GUI 190 at the node N (i) to view electronically-displayed data regarding the status of the substations S and distribution circuits DC, (ii) to provide user inputs to select among the substations S and distribution circuits DC, and/or (iii) to provide user inputs to transmit control commands for the substations S and distribution circuits DC.

[0049] Referring now to Figure IE, a block diagram is provided that illustrates details of an example processor 150 and memory 170 of a communication node C (or a node N) that may be used in accordance with various embodiments. The processor 150

communicates with the memory 170 via an address/data bus 180. The processor 150 may be, for example, a commercially available or custom microprocessor. Moreover, the processor 150 may include multiple processors. The memory 170 is representative of the overall hierarchy of memory devices containing the software and data used to implement various functions of communication node C as described herein. The memory 170 may include, but is not limited to, the following types of devices: cache, ROM, PROM, EPROM, EEPROM, flash, Static RAM (SRAM), and Dynamic RAM (DRAM).

[0050] As shown in Figure IE, the memory 170 may hold various categories of software and data, such as an operating system 173. The operating system 173 controls operations of a communication node C. In particular, the operating system 173 may manage the resources of a communication node C and may coordinate execution of various programs by the processor 150.

[0051] Referring now to Figures 2A-2C, flowcharts are provided illustrating operations of power management for a substation S of Figure 1A, according to various embodiments. In particular, referring to Figure 2 A, operations of power management for a circuit (e.g., a distribution circuit DC) of the substation S are provided. The operations include identifying (Block 210) occurrence of an outage on the circuit of the substation S. For example, a power outage may be detected for a particular one of the distribution circuits DC that is illustrated in Figure 1 A. In some embodiments, an apparatus such as a communication node C or a node N may visually indicate the occurrence of the outage. Accordingly, identifying (Block 210) occurrence of the outage may include displaying, via the GUI 190 at a node N of the distribution control center DCC, an indication of the outage, such as by displaying zero amps for the circuit.

[0052] The operations of power management also include selecting (Block 220) the circuit where the outage occurred. For example, upon identifying a circuit with three phases that have gone to zero (an outage), an engineer at a distribution control center DCC may manually select that circuit and/or may manually enter an estimated outage start time. In some embodiments, a CLPU estimation model may automatically provide a timestamp when the engineer selects a substation circuit as having an outage. The manual circuit selection may trigger a CLPU estimation model/program to start. The CLPU estimation

model/program may then analyze data for the circuit to determine precisely when the outage started, and may calculate from the first zero of the outage. Applying the model may include determining a best-guess cold load pickup for each peak of the circuit.

[0053] Moreover, as used herein, the words "selected circuit" may refer to a distribution circuit that is selected among a plurality of distribution circuits of the substation. In some embodiments, a user (e.g., an engineer) selects the circuit via user input to an apparatus such as a communication node C or the node N. For example, an engineer may select the circuit using a dropdown list that is displayed by the GUI 190 at the node N of the distribution control center DCC. Alternatively, the engineer could select the circuit on a map that is displayed by the GUI 190, or the circuit could be automatically selected. As an example, the circuit could be automatically selected by an apparatus (e.g., the node N) or system that will perform CLPU analysis (see Block 230) on the circuit. Accordingly, an apparatus such as a communication node C or the node N may, in some embodiments, automatically select the circuit in response to identifying (Block 210) the occurrence of the outage on the circuit. For example, the CLPU estimation model/program may automatically select the circuit in response to identifying (Block 210) the occurrence of the outage on the circuit. In some embodiments, the same communication node C or the same node N may automatically perform the operations of both Block 210 and Block 220. Alternatively, after identifying (Block 210) the occurrence of the outage on the circuit, an engineer could select (Block 220) that circuit by manually inputting (e.g., via the GUI 190) the circuit into a CLPU estimation model/program.

[0054] Moreover, the operations of power management include using (Block 230) a CLPU estimation model that uses real-time, circuit-specific parameters for the selected circuit to perform CLPU analysis on the selected circuit. In some embodiments, the operations of Block 230 may include outputting an estimated value of CLPU for the selected circuit.

Accordingly, an output of the CLPU analysis may be a value that represents an estimate of what the load on the selected circuit will be upon restoration of power. In some

embodiments, the value may be a multiplier for calculating the estimated load. The operations then include restoring (Block 240) current to the selected circuit. For example, a command may be transmitted to the particular substation S via the communication network 115 to restore current to the selected circuit. As an example, the command may be transmitted from the distribution control center DCC to the particular substation S via the communication network 115. Moreover, after completing the operations in Block 240 with respect to the selected circuit, the operations of Blocks 210-240 may be repeated with respect to a different circuit using different real-time, circuit-specific parameters/inputs that are tailored to the different circuit. Accordingly, respective real-time, circuit-specific CLPU estimates may be quickly output by the CLPU estimation model for a plurality of circuits experiencing outages, whereas manual attempts to do so could take hours.

[0055] Referring still to Figure 2A, operations of power management for the circuit of the substation S may optionally include training (Block 205) the CLPU estimation model using outage data from a plurality of substations S and a plurality of distribution circuits DC over a plurality of time periods, such as years, before identifying (Block 210) the occurrence of the outage on the circuit. Accordingly, before identifying (Block 210) the outage, a model build process may occur that includes training the model and choosing the best (e.g., best- scoring) model. The model may be built on a comprehensive data set of outages (outage history) on multiple circuits over multiple years. In some embodiments, machine learning may be used to let a computer system design the model by running though combinations of decision trees to provide the best (e.g., best correlation) results. After training the model, the model may be tested with historical parameters/inputs of previous outages that the model has not seen before, to validate/verify its accuracy.

[0056] In some embodiments, the operations of power management for the circuit of the substation S may optionally include automatically inputting (Block 225) the real-time, circuit-specific parameters for the circuit (which parameters will used in Block 230) to the CLPU estimation model, in response to selecting (Block 220) the circuit where the outage occurred.

[0057] The real-time, circuit-specific parameters that are input to the CLPU estimation model include at least one parameter that is specific to the particular circuit that is selected in Block 220. For example, the real-time, circuit-specific parameters that are input to the CLPU estimation model may include demographic data of the circuit. The

demographic data may, in some embodiments, account for a particular circuit's customer base/types, such as by including a concentration/distribution (e.g., a percentage or ratio) of commercial and/or industrial customers. As an example, the demographic data include a ratio of (a) the commercial and/or industrial customers to (b) residential customers on the circuit.

[0058] Moreover, the real-time, circuit-specific parameters that are input to the CLPU estimation model include at least one parameter that indicates a real-time condition (e.g., environmental factor) for the particular circuit that is selected in Block 220. For example, the real-time, circuit-specific parameters that are input to the CLPU estimation model may include parameters such as weather, season, month, time of day, day of week, average pre-outage load, percentage of mobile homes, concentration of electric heat versus gas heat, and/or solar capacity. The weather parameter may include temperature, precipitation, wind, and/or humidity. The season parameter may be winter, spring, summer, or fall. The time of day parameter may be a discrete time of day (e.g., 2: 12pm) or may be a broader category such as morning, afternoon, evening, or night. The day of week parameter may include a specific day (e.g., Monday) or an indication of a weekday versus a weekend day. The CLPU estimation model may request and receive the real-time, circuit-specific parameters from one or more servers/databases. For example, the CLPU estimation model may request and receive weather data from a weather server/database via the communication network 115.

[0059] Referring to Figure 2B, the operations of selecting (Block 220) the circuit where the outage occurred may include selecting (Block 220A) the corresponding substation S via a user input (e.g., by an engineer) to the GUI 190. The operations may also include selecting (Block 220B) the circuit via another user input to the GUI 190, after selecting (Block 220 A) the substation S. In some embodiments, selecting (Block 220A) the substation S via the GUI 190 may include selecting the substation S from a list of a plurality of substations S that is displayed on the GUI 190. Alternatively, selecting (Block 220A) the substation S via the GUI 190 may include selecting the substation S from a map of a plurality of substations S that is displayed on the GUI 190.

[0060] Referring to Figure 2C, the operations of restoring (Block 240) current to the circuit may include providing (Block 240 A) a value, based on the CLPU analysis by the CLPU estimation model, to a Distribution Management System (DMS). For example, the value may be an estimated value of CLPU for the selected circuit. The DMS may be controlled by one or more communication nodes C and/or by an electric utility office or an electric utility data center. As an example, the DMS may be located at and/or controlled by the distribution control center DCC (e.g., by the node N or by another apparatus). In some embodiments, the estimated value of CLPU for the selected circuit may be a real-time, circuit-specific multiplier by which a previous load of the circuit is to be multiplied.

Accordingly, providing (Block 240A) the value may include providing the real-time, circuit- specific multiplier to the DMS. For example, based on the CLPU estimation model's analysis, an engineer at the distribution control center DCC may input the multiplier/multiple of the previous level/load into the DMS . The multiplier may be a number such as 1.15, 1.3, 1.6, 2, 2.3, 3, 3.3, or 4, among other numbers.

[0061] Referring still to Figure 2C, the operations of restoring (Block 240) current to the circuit may also include testing (Block 240B) a portion of the circuit, after providing (Block 240A) to the DMS the value that is based on the analysis by the CLPU estimation model. For example, a portion of the circuit that includes only a subset of customer premises CP for the circuit may be tested by providing power to that portion. Moreover, the operations may include providing (Block 240D) current to other portions of the circuit, in response to the portion of the circuit passing (Block 240C) the test. Accordingly if the test goes well (i.e., pass instead of fail), then the full circuit (all customer premises CP on the circuit) can go live. If not (i.e., fail), then further investigating/testing should occur before going live on the full circuit.

[0062] In some embodiments, the operations of Figures 2A-2C may be performed by a communication node C in the field. Alternatively, the operations of Figures 2 A-2C may be performed by an apparatus that is at a centralized location such as an electric utility office or an electric utility data center. For example, the operations of Figures 2A-2C may be performed by an apparatus, such as the node N, that is at the distribution control center DCC of an electric utility. The apparatus may include circuitry configured to perform the functions of a communication node C.

[0063] The present inventive entity appreciates that a CLPU estimation model may enable distribution control center DCC engineers to safely restore power faster and with more confidence than by using a CLPU lookup table. When an outage occurs, a utility can run input/parameter data through a built CLPU estimation model to produce a cold load prediction. In particular, by using real-time, circuit-specific inputs/parameters, the CLPU estimation model can better predict future cold load pickups than by using a CLPU lookup table.

[0064] Specific example embodiments of the present inventive concepts are described with reference to the accompanying drawings. The present inventive concepts may, however, be embodied in a variety of different forms and should not be construed as limited to the embodiments set forth herein. Rather, these embodiments are provided so that this disclosure will be thorough and complete and will fully convey the scope of the present inventive concepts to those skilled in the art. In the drawings, like designations refer to like elements. It will be understood that when an element is referred to as being "connected," "coupled," or "responsive" to another element, it can be directly connected, coupled or responsive to the other element or intervening elements may be present. Furthermore, "connected," "coupled," or "responsive" as used herein may include wirelessly connected, coupled, or responsive.

[0065] The terminology used herein is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only and is not intended to be limiting of the present inventive concepts. As used herein, the singular forms "a," "an," and "the" are intended to include the plural forms as well, unless expressly stated otherwise. It will be further understood that the terms

"includes," "comprises," "including," and/or "comprising," when used in this specification, specify the presence of stated features, steps, operations, elements, and/or components, but do not preclude the presence or addition of one or more other features, steps, operations, elements, components, and/or groups thereof. As used herein, the term "and/or" includes any and all combinations of one or more of the associated listed items. The symbol "/" is also used as a shorthand notation for "and/or."

[0066] Unless otherwise defined, all terms (including technical and scientific terms) used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which these inventive concepts belong. It will be further understood that terms, such as those defined in commonly used dictionaries, should be interpreted as having a meaning that is consistent with their meaning in the context of the relevant art and the present disclosure, and will not be interpreted in an idealized or overly formal sense unless expressly so defined herein.

[0067] It will also be understood that although the terms "first" and "second" may be used herein to describe various elements, these elements should not be limited by these terms. These terms are only used to distinguish one element from another element. Thus, a first element could be termed a second element, and similarly, a second element may be termed a first element without departing from the teachings of the present inventive concepts.

[0068] Example embodiments of the present inventive concepts may be embodied as nodes, devices, apparatuses, and methods. Accordingly, example embodiments of the present inventive concepts may be embodied in hardware and/or in software (including firmware, resident software, micro-code, etc.). Furthermore, example embodiments of the present inventive concepts may take the form of a computer program product comprising a non- transitory computer-usable or computer-readable storage medium having computer-usable or computer-readable program code embodied in the medium for use by or in connection with an instruction execution system. In the context of this document, a computer-usable or computer-readable medium may be any medium that can contain, store, communicate, or transport the program for use by or in connection with the instruction execution system, apparatus, or device.

[0069] The computer-usable or computer-readable medium may be, for example but not limited to, an electronic, magnetic, optical, electromagnetic, infrared, or semiconductor system, apparatus, or device. More specific examples (a nonexhaustive list) of the computer- readable medium would include the following: an electrical connection having one or more wires, a portable computer diskette, a random access memory (RAM), a read-only memory (ROM), an erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM or Flash memory), an optical fiber, and a portable compact disc read-only memory (CD-ROM). Note that the computer- usable or computer-readable medium could even be paper or another suitable medium upon which the program is printed, as the program can be electronically captured, via, for instance, optical scanning of the paper or other medium, then compiled, interpreted, or otherwise processed in a suitable manner, if necessary, and then stored in a computer memory.

[0070] Example embodiments of the present inventive concepts are described herein with reference to flowchart and/or block diagram illustrations. It will be understood that each block of the flowchart and/or block diagram illustrations, and combinations of blocks in the flowchart and/or block diagram illustrations, may be implemented by computer program instructions and/or hardware operations. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, a special purpose computer, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means and/or circuits for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart and/or block diagram block or blocks.

[0071] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer usable or computer-readable memory that may direct a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer usable or computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture including instructions that implement the functions specified in the flowchart and/or block diagram block or blocks.

[0072] The computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce a computer implemented process such that the instructions that execute on the computer or other programmable apparatus provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart and/or block diagram block or blocks.

[0073] In the specification, various embodiments of the present inventive concepts have been disclosed and, although specific terms are employed, they are used in a generic and descriptive sense only and not for purposes of limitation. Those skilled in the art will readily appreciate that many modifications are possible for the disclosed embodiments without materially departing from the teachings and advantages of the present inventive concepts. The present inventive concepts are defined by the following claims, with equivalents of the claims to be included therein.

Claims

WHAT IS CLAIMED IS:

1. A power management method for a circuit of a substation, the method comprising:

identifying occurrence of an outage on the circuit of the substation;

selecting the circuit where the outage occurred;

using a cold load pickup estimation model that uses real-time, circuit-specific parameters for the circuit to perform cold load pickup analysis on the circuit, in response to selecting the circuit; then

restoring current to the circuit.

2. The method of Claim 1 , wherein restoring current to the circuit comprises: providing a value, based on the cold load pickup analysis by the cold load pickup estimation model, to a distribution management system;

testing a portion of the circuit, after providing to the distribution management system the value that is based on the cold load pickup analysis by the cold load pickup estimation model; and

providing current to other portions of the circuit, in response to the portion of the circuit passing the test.

3. The method of Claim 1 , wherein selecting the circuit where the outage occurred comprises:

selecting the substation via a graphical user interface; and

selecting the circuit via the graphical user interface, after selecting the substation.

4. The method of Claim 3, wherein selecting the substation via the graphical user interface comprises selecting the substation from a list of a plurality of substations that is displayed on the graphical user interface.

5. The method of Claim 3, wherein selecting the substation via the graphical user interface comprises selecting the substation from a map of a plurality of substations that is displayed on the graphical user interface.

6. The method of Claim 1, further comprising automatically inputting the realtime, circuit-specific parameters for the circuit to the cold load pickup estimation model, in response to selecting the circuit where the outage occurred.

7. The method of Claim 6, wherein the real-time, circuit-specific parameters that are input to the cold load pickup estimation model comprise demographic data of the circuit.

8. The method of Claim 7, wherein the demographic data comprises a ratio of commercial and/or industrial customers to residential customers on the circuit.

9. The method of Claim 6, wherein the real-time, circuit-specific parameters that are input to the cold load pickup estimation model comprise:

weather; and

time of day.

10. The method of Claim 1, further comprising:

before identifying the occurrence of the outage on the circuit, training the cold load pickup estimation model using outage data from a plurality of substations over a plurality of years.

11. An apparatus comprising:

a processor; and

a memory coupled to the processor and comprising computer readable program code that when executed by the processor causes the processor to perform operations comprising:

selecting a distribution circuit where an outage occurred;

using a cold load pickup estimation model that uses real-time, circuit-specific parameters for the selected distribution circuit to output an estimated value of cold load pickup for the selected distribution circuit; then

providing a command to restore current to the selected distribution circuit.

12. The apparatus of Claim 11, wherein the processor is configured to input the real-time, circuit-specific parameters for the selected distribution circuit to the cold load pickup estimation model.

13. The apparatus of Claim 12, wherein the real-time, circuit-specific parameters comprise demographic data of the selected distribution circuit.

14. The apparatus of Claim 13, wherein the demographic data comprises a ratio of commercial and/or industrial customers to residential customers on the selected distribution circuit.

15. The apparatus of Claim 12, wherein the real-time, circuit-specific parameters comprise:

weather;

day of week; and

time of day.

16. A computer program product comprising:

a computer readable storage medium comprising computer readable program code embodied in the medium therewith, the computer readable program code comprising:

computer readable program code configured to select a circuit where an outage occurred; and

computer readable program code configured to use a cold load pickup estimation model that uses real-time, circuit-specific parameters for the selected circuit to output an estimated value of cold load pickup for the selected circuit.

17. The computer program product of Claim 16, wherein the computer readable program code comprises computer readable program code configured to input the real-time, circuit-specific parameters for the selected circuit to the cold load pickup estimation model.

18. The computer program product of Claim 17, wherein the real-time, circuit- specific parameters comprise demographic data of the selected circuit.

19. The computer program product of Claim 17, wherein the real-time, circuit- specific parameters comprise :

temperature; wind; and

time of day.

20. The computer program product of Claim 16,

wherein the estimated value of cold load pickup for the selected circuit comprises a real-time, circuit-specific multiplier by which a previous load of the selected circuit is to be multiplied, and

wherein the computer readable program code comprises computer readable program code configured to provide the real-time, circuit-specific multiplier to a distribution management system.