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Volume 15 Issue 11, November 2025

Phosphorus cycle response to permafrost thaw

How permafrost thaw will impact the phosphorus cycle is uncertain, but has implications for carbon dynamics. In this issue, Li et al. assess changes in phosphorus cycling upon abrupt thaw. Large-scale observations from a permafrost collapse observation network reveal that abrupt permafrost thaw accelerates soil phosphorus cycling, potentially boosting vegetation productivity and offsetting thaw-induced carbon loss. This aerial photo captures a 300-metre thermo-erosion gully characterized by vegetated patches and exposed organic-rich soils, which is one of six study sites within the observation network.

See Li et al. and News & Views by Iversen

Image: Ziliang Li, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Cover design: Vanitha Selvarajan

Editorial

  • December 2025 marks the tenth anniversary of adoption of the Paris Agreement. Although we have seen both achievements and disappointments in the past decade, we believe that the Paris Agreement will keep playing a key role in international climate actions.

    Editorial

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  • A decade ago, the Paris Agreement was adopted, which was a landmark for international climate governance. In this infographic, we reflect on the progress that has been made as well as some of the challenges that still lie ahead, such as policy agenda, social change and technology development.

    Editorial
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Correspondence

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Comment

  • Standardized quantitative emissions benchmarking is essential for corporate climate accountability, yet recent literature has critiqued this approach. We argue for structured pluralism with budget compliance — balancing methodological flexibility while preserving the disciplining power of carbon budgets.

    • Saphira Rekker
    • Kaya Axelsson
    • Belinda Wade
    Comment
  • The role of climate science is changing — fast. Once positioned to inform policy, scientific assessments are increasingly being used in courtrooms to substantiate claims of harm, causation and state responsibility. Climate knowledge has now become legal evidence in the fight for climate justice.

    • Stacy-ann Robinson
    • Shaina Sadai
    • Heloise Evins-Mackenzie
    Comment
  • Restrictions on civil society may drive climate activists to shift from protest to litigation. However, challenges to judicial independence, deregulation and anti-climate litigation mean that activists need to consider the conditions under which litigation leads to strengthened climate ambition and implementation.

    • Mette Eilstrup-Sangiovanni
    • Nina Hall
    • Harro van Asselt
    Comment
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Viewpoint

  • To mark the tenth anniversary of the Paris Agreement, Nature Climate Change asked experts to reflect on the progress of and barriers to several of its key Articles. They share their thoughts on important policy implications, what has been achieved and missed, as well as future directions.

    • Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
    • Paula Castro
    • Thomas Bernauer
    Viewpoint
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Research Highlights

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News & Views

  • The rise of generative AI presents both risks and opportunities for shaping climate discourse. New findings suggest it can help lower climate scepticism and bolster support for climate action.

    • Anandita Sabherwal
    News & Views
  • The impacts of permafrost thaw are widespread across tundra landscapes. Now, research across a series of thermokarst landscapes on the Tibetan Plateau shows that abrupt permafrost thaw increases plant-available phosphorus, alters the vegetation community and tips the balance of belowground nutrient competition.

    • Colleen M. Iversen
    News & Views
  • Marine diatoms, tiny algae that underpin ocean food webs, face rising ocean temperatures. Now, a study shows that genome duplication helps diatoms adapt faster to warming, reshaping our understanding of phytoplankton resilience in a changing ocean.

    • Peng Jin
    News & Views
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Research Briefings

  • Glacier microclimates can decouple glacier temperatures from ongoing climatic warming, slowing down melting. However, these microclimates will decay as glaciers retreat. A statistical model indicates that by the latter half of the twenty-first century, the temperature of glaciers will be increasingly sensitive to fluctuations in atmospheric temperature.

    Research Briefing
  • A human-driven increase in upwelling of carbon-rich deep waters threatens the efficiency of the Southern Ocean carbon sink, which substantially mitigates global warming. Long-term observations reveal that surface freshening since the 1990s has acted as a barrier, preventing CO2 release to the atmosphere and, temporarily, preserving the Southern Ocean’s role in slowing down climate change.

    Research Briefing
  • Bridging traditional disciplinary silos, a study has mapped cascading climate risks to the European Union through stakeholder-co-produced impact chains and network analysis. It provides country-specific risk profiles by identifying critical intervention points — such as water, livelihoods or violent conflict — to support policy coherence in addressing interconnected vulnerabilities and guiding targeted adaptation.

    Research Briefing
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Perspectives

  • Scenarios, generated by integrated assessment models in model intercomparison projects (MIPs), play a central role in climate decision-making. This Perspective discusses the challenges of the current approach and proposes a new MIP platform with a transparent and inclusive process.

    • Shinichiro Fujimori
    • Volker Krey
    • Matthias Weitzel
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  • Climate change influences not only crop yields but also crop nutritional content, which is currently not simulated by process-based crop models. This Perspective proposes a way forward to integrate nutrients into crop models to assess climate impacts and highlights data needs.

    • Bianca Carducci
    • Jose Rafael Guarin
    • Cynthia Rosenzweig
    Perspective
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Matters Arising

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Articles

  • Climate sceptics tend to avoid climate information, making it even harder to reduce scepticism. This study shows that generative AI can enhance sceptics’ engagement with climate news by tailoring headlines to their existing perspective and shift their beliefs towards the scientific consensus.

    • Bence Bago
    • Philippe Muller
    • Jean-François Bonnefon
    Article
  • ChatGPT provides a way of teaching people about climate change. This research reveals that conversations between climate sceptics and ChatGPT reduced climate scepticism, but these effects are modest, inconsistent across studies and prone to decay over time.

    • Matthew J. Hornsey
    • Samuel Pearson
    • Saphira Rekker
    Article
  • Meat products represent a large share of the carbon footprints of cities, which are dependent on the characteristics of supply regions. With spatially explicit data, researchers show how the so-called carbon hoofprint varies between cities due to the different carbon intensities of producing regions.

    • Benjamin P. Goldstein
    • Rylie E. O. Pelton
    • Joshua P. Newell
    Article Open Access
  • It is important to understand how much long-term sea-level rise is already committed due to historical and near-term emissions. Here the authors use a modelling framework to show how decisions on global emissions reductions in the coming decades alter multi-century sea-level rise projections.

    • Alexander Nauels
    • Zebedee Nicholls
    • Matthew D. Palmer
    Article Open Access
  • It has been argued that air temperatures over mountain glaciers are decoupled from surrounding warming, which could slow down melting. Here the authors show that this effect will weaken with future glacier retreat, leading to a recoupling of temperatures from the 2030s onwards.

    • Thomas E. Shaw
    • Evan S. Miles
    • Francesca Pellicciotti
    Article Open Access
  • The Southern Ocean carbon sink is predicted to decline under climate change. This study explores why this is yet to be seen in observations, finding that recent surface freshening increases stratification and traps the CO2-rich water in the subsurface layer, which prevents atmospheric outgassing.

    • Léa Olivier
    • F. Alexander Haumann
    Article Open Access
  • Impacts from a climate event can cascade through natural, anthropogenic and socio-economic systems. Here the authors assess cascading climate impacts on the EU and identify intervention points for adaptation related to water, livelihoods, agriculture, infrastructure and economy, and violent conflict.

    • Cornelia Auer
    • Christopher P. O. Reyer
    • Nico Wunderling
    Article Open Access
  • The response of the phosphorus (P) cycle to permafrost thaw is unknown, but has implications for carbon dynamics. This study assesses changes in the P cycle upon abrupt thaw and shows accelerated soil P cycling and increased plant uptake, which may boost primary production and partially offset soil carbon loss.

    • Ziliang Li
    • Luyao Kang
    • Yuanhe Yang
    Article
  • The authors obtained large-volume individuals of diatom cultures under thermal stress. These polyploids (having more than two sets of chromosomes) are shown to rapidly adapt to high temperatures, highlighting polyploidization as a possible adaptive measure for diatoms under climate change.

    • Zhengke Li
    • Yong Zhang
    • Zoe V. Finkel
    Article
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Analysis

  • Private sectors play an important role in global adaptation efforts, yet we have a limited understanding of their investment patterns. With firm adaptation expenditure data across five coastal urban areas, this research shows how adaptation investment differs across regions and sectors.

    • Tatiana Filatova
    • Alessandro Taberna
    • Ignasi Cortés Arbués
    Analysis
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