Extended Data Fig. 5: Life-cycle GHG emissions: Sensitivity analyses for 2030 and 2050 technology.

Life-cycle GHG emissions for light-duty vehicles (left), heavy-duty trucks (middle), and planes (right), as a function of the carbon intensity of electricity used for battery charging, hydrogen and e-fuel production. Comparing e-fuel options (CO₂ from DAC or fossil CCU), hydrogen fuel cells (H₂ from electrolysis), direct electrification with batteries and fossil options, all of which is based on anticipated technological progress in 2030 and 2050 using the life-cycle assessment model carculator⁵¹ and carculator_truck⁶⁸. Vertical lines show carbon intensities of electricity for selected geographies (for 2017–18). The secondary x axis (bottom) translates the carbon intensity of electricity into an equivalent share of renewable electricity generation (equal shares of wind and solar PV electricity, where the remaining non-renewable generation is natural gas and coal electricity in equal shares).