PINIGŲ POLITIKA
2025 07 24
Naujausioji ECB spaudos konferencija
Spaudos konferencijoje Pirmininkė Christine Lagarde ir jos pavaduotojas Luisas de Guindosas paaiškino Valdančiosios tarybos pinigų politikos sprendimus ir atsakė į žurnalistų klausimus.
Daugiau
ECB TINKLARAŠTIS
2025 07 25
Pertvarkų Europoje finansavimo strategija
Europa privalo finansuoti savo žaliąją, skaitmeninę ir gynybos pertvarkas. Nauji įsipareigojimai gynybos srityje yra didelis išbandymas tiek ES, tiek nacionaliniams biudžetams, todėl šiame ECB tinklaraščio įraše aprašoma šių iššūkių finansavimo strategija.
Skaityti ECB tinklaraštį
PRANEŠIMAS SPAUDAI
2025 07 15
Skelbiamas būsimų banknotų dizaino konkursas
Pradedame viešą būsimų eurų banknotų dizaino konkursą. Dizaineriai iš visos Europos kviečiami teikti paraiškas iki rugpjūčio 18 d., pirmadienio, 12.00 val. (Vidurio Europos laiku). Pirminę atranką praėjusių kandidatų bus paprašyta teikti dizaino pasiūlymus.
Skaityti pranešimą spaudai- 25 July 2025
- GOVERNING COUNCIL DECISIONS - OTHER DECISIONSEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 25 July 2025
- EURO AREA ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS BY INSTITUTIONAL SECTOR (FULL)
- 25 July 2025
- PRESS RELEASE
- 25 July 2025
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 25 July 2025
- PAGEDetails
- Summary
- ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters - a quarterly survey of expectations for the rates of inflation, real GDP growth and unemployment in the euro area.
- 25 July 2025
- MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EURO AREAAnnexes
- 25 July 2025
- MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EURO AREA
- 24 July 2025
- Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 24 July 2025EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 14 July 2025
- Introductory statement by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament
- 10 July 2025
- Speech by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Banka Slovenije
- 9 July 2025
- Remarks by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the House of the Euro
- 4 July 2025
- Welcome address by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the International Monetary Fund OEDNE/World Bank Group EDS19 Constituency Meeting
- 11 July 2025
- Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by David Barwick and Marta Vilar on 9 July 2025
- 16 June 2025
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Balázs Korányi and Francesco Cánepa on 12 June 2025
- 14 June 2025
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Su Liang on 12 June 2025
- 27 May 2025
- Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Christian Siedenbiedel on 20 May 2025
- 27 May 2025
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Leonidas Stergiou on 21 May 2025
- 25 July 2025
- Following the June NATO summit, Europe is confronting heightened challenges in financing its green, digital and defence transitions as new defence commitments place increased pressure on national and EU budgets. Balancing strategic priorities with debt sustainability is crucial. This blog outlines a three-pronged strategy.Details
- JEL Code
- E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
- 14 July 2025
- TARGET Services are the backbone of Europe’s financial market infrastructure. Like a spine, they have to be both strong and supple. Strong enough to process large volumes and values while maintaining high levels of performance, and supple and flexible enough to respond to changing needs, technologies and geopolitical conditions.Details
- JEL Code
- E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
- 13 July 2025
- July 2025 began with yet another heatwave across Europe. ECB research finds such events can substantially reduce economic activity in affected regions and increase food prices. With global warming, future heatwaves are likely to have more pronounced economic effects.Details
- JEL Code
- Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 11 July 2025
- European banks have made forward strides in managing climate and nature-related risks. But more still needs to be done as we often see that practices are only applied to a subset of relevant exposures, geographic areas and risk categories. To help banks improve further, later this year the ECB will publish an updated set of good practices observed in banks across Europe. European banks are well positioned to meet the prudential transition plan requirements, which the ECB will approach in a gradual and tailored manner.Details
- JEL Code
- G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
- 9 July 2025
- Climate change is no longer “the Tragedy of the Horizon”, as Mark Carney put it, but an imminent danger. In the next five years, extreme weather events could already put up to 5% of the euro area’s economic output at risk, according to the new short-term scenarios of the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS).
- 25 July 2025
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 25 July 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3078Details
- Abstract
- Does the maturity of the relevant risk-free rate influence the strength of monetary policy pass-through to interest rates on new loans? To address this question, we present novel empirical evidence on lending practices across all euro area countries, using AnaCredit data covering nearly seven million new loans issued to non-financial corporations in 2022–2023. We document substantial variation in (a) the prevalence of fixed- vs floating-rate loans, (b) rate fixation periods, and (c) reference rates. This variation results in lending rates being exposed to different segments of the risk-free rate yield curve which, in turn, influence their sensitivity to monetary policy changes. We show that loans linked to shorter-maturity risk-free rates experience more pronounced monetary pass-through. Importantly, this effect is not purely mechanical, as part of the effect is offset by adjustments in the premium, revealing previously less-explored heterogeneity in the pass-through to lending rates.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies - Network
- Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World Network (ChaMP)
- 25 July 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3077Details
- Abstract
- We examine the link between the diffusion of artificial intelligence (AI) enabled technologies and changes in the female employment share in 16 European countries over the period 2011-2019. Using data for occupations at the 3-digit level, we find that on average female employment shares increased in occupations more exposed to AI. Countries with high initial female labor force participation and higher initial female relative education show a stronger positive association. While there exists heterogeneity across countries, almost all show a positive relation between changes in female employment shares within occupations and exposure to AI-enabled automation.
- JEL Code
- J23 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Demand
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
- 25 July 2025
- LEGAL ACT
- 25 July 2025
- LEGAL ACT
- 25 July 2025
- LEGAL ACT
- 25 July 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This box summarises the findings of recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 72 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which took place between 23 June and 2 July, activity growth had slowed in recent months as geopolitical and tariff-related uncertainty dented business and consumer confidence. The employment outlook had consequently also worsened. Price growth was moderating, mainly due to downward pressure on prices in the manufacturing sector caused by weak demand and increased import competition. Firms remained confident that wage growth would continue slowing.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
- 25 July 2025
- SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERSAnnexes
- 25 July 2025
- SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERS
- 22 July 2025
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 22 July 2025
- EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEYAnnexes
- 22 July 2025
- EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY - ANNEX
- 21 July 2025
- SURVEY ON THE ACCESS TO FINANCE OF ENTERPRISES IN THE EURO AREAAnnexes
- 21 July 2025
- SAFE QUESTIONNAIRE
- 16 July 2025
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 16 July 2025
- DIGITAL EURO PREPARATION PHASE - PROGRESS REPORT
- 15 July 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3076Details
- Abstract
- Shocks to a bank’s ability to raise liquidity at short notice can trigger depositor panics. Why don’t banks take a more active role in managing these risks? We study contingent risk management (hedging) in a standard global-games model of a bank run. Banks fail to hedge precisely when the exposure to a shock is most severe, just when risk management would have the biggest impact. Higher bank capital and broader deposit-insurance coverage crowd out hedging by banks that already manage risk, yet encourage more banks to establish risk management desks in the first place. The model also yields testable implications for hedging incentives and policy design.
- JEL Code
- G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 14 July 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3075Details
- Abstract
- This paper proposes a novel yet intuitive method for the calibration of the CCyB through the cycle in the euro area, including the positive neutral CCyB rate. The paper implements the Risk-to-Buffer framework by Couaillier and Scalone (2024) in both a DSGE and macro time series setting and proposes a calibration of the PN CCyB aimed to reduce the macroeconomic amplification of shocks occurring in an environment where risks are neither subdued nor elevated. The suggested positive neutral CCyB rates for the euro area are consistent across methodologies and robust to alternative specifications, ranging between 1% and 1.5%. The results also highlight the role of different shocks and sources of cyclical systemic risk for the calibration of the CCyB through the cycle. The flexibility of the method regarding the modeling tools, the selection of specific levels of risks as well as the choice of state variables and of exogenous shocks make it particularly suitable to be tailored to national specificities and policymakers’ preferences.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
- 14 July 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3074Details
- Abstract
- We propose a novel framework to assess systemic risk stemming from the inadequate liquidity preparedness of non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) to derivative margin calls. Unlike banks, NBFIs may struggle to source liquidity and meet margin calls during periods of significant asset price fluctuations, potentially triggering asset fire sales and amplifying market volatility. We develop a set of indicators and statistical methods to assess liquidity preparedness and examine risk transmission through common asset holdings and counterparty exposures. Applying our framework to euro area NBFIs during the Covid-19 turmoil and the 2022–2023 monetary tightening, we observe an increase in distressed entities, which, in turn, seem to exhibit more liquidity-driven selling behaviours than their non-distressed peers. Network analysis suggests that certain counterparties of distressed entities appear particularly vulnerable to margin call-induced liquidity shocks. Our framework offers policymakers valuable tools to enhance the monitoring and resilience of the NBFI sector.
- JEL Code
- C02 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→General→Mathematical Methods
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 10 July 2025
- STATISTICS PAPER SERIES - No. 51Details
- Abstract
- One of the main goals of launching the EU’s second Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID II) and the respective Markets in Financial Instruments Regulation (MiFIR) was to increase the transparency of transactions in financial markets. Prior to MiFID II, transparency requirements in financial markets were limited mostly to equities traded in regulated markets. Following MiFID II, transactions now need to be publicly reported for a broader range of financial assets. Furthermore, disclosures on financial transactions are not restricted to those transactions executed in regulated markets but apply also to those executed over the counter. Importantly, this information should be made available free of charge, ensuring non-discriminatory access, within the 15 minutes following the transaction. The published information should also be machine-readable. The purpose of this paper is to show how a relatively simple IT tool may be devised that gathers data on market prices and transacted volumes published in compliance with MiFID II. We steer our simple IT tool towards retrieving data on those financial assets that are eligible for use as collateral in Eurosystem credit operations. This includes those assets eligible for outright purchase under the various monetary policy programmes launched by the Eurosystem. In view of the importance of UK financial markets when it comes to trading in Eurosystem eligible marketable assets, our tool also covers transactions and quotes reported by UK trading venues and investment firms in compliance with UK MiFIR. Apart from the merits and potential of our IT tool, this paper documents some of the tool’s shortcomings related to processing the posted MiFID II and UK MiFIR raw data. It also covers some of the deficiencies associated with the data. Increased market transparency contributes to deeper and more integrated financial markets, potentially supporting economic growth. […]
- JEL Code
- C81 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data, Data Access
D40 : Microeconomics→Market Structure and Pricing→General
G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
- 9 July 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3073Details
- Abstract
- How do violent conflicts shape cross-border lending? Using data on syndicated loans by 14,021 creditors to firms in 179 countries (1989–2020), we document a dual effect: foreign banks reduce overall lending relative to domestic banks but significantly increase financing to military and dual-use sectors during conflicts. This reallocation is stronger among lenders less specialized in the conflict country, more specialized in military lending, and domiciled in politically non-aligned nations. Effects are geographically contained and temporally limited, dissipating post-conflict. Our findings reveal how global banks strategically redirect credit toward military sectors during armed conflicts, despite reducing overall country exposure.
- JEL Code
- D74 : Microeconomics→Analysis of Collective Decision-Making→Conflict, Conflict Resolution, Alliances
F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
F40 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→General
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 9 July 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3072Details
- Abstract
- We show theoretically how the anticipated cross-selling of loans incentivizes banks to offer lower deposit spreads to attract and retain depositors, more when policy rates are lower and future cross-selling is more valuable. Utilizing comprehensive data on every Norwegian bank household relationship, we then establish empirically how banks facing identical loan demand respond to policy rate cuts with greater deposit spread reductions for clients with higher cross-selling potential, thereby raising both deposit and loan growth. Cross-selling constitutes a complementary, novel channel for monetary policy transmission through banks, elucidates loss-making deposit pricing in low-rate periods, and connects banks’ deposit and loan franchises.
- JEL Code
- D14 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Household Saving; Personal Finance
D43 : Microeconomics→Market Structure and Pricing→Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G51 : Financial Economics - Network
- Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World Network (ChaMP)
- 8 July 2025
- LEGAL ACT
Palūkanų normos
| Indėlių galimybė | 2,00 % |
| Pagrindinės refinansavimo operacijos (fiksuotosios palūkanų normos) | 2,15 % |
| Ribinio skolinimosi galimybė | 2,40 % |
Infliacijos lygis
Daugiau apie infliacijąValiutų kursai
| USD | US dollar | 1.1724 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 173.11 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.87150 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9343 |
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