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The Relation between Behavior under Risk and over Time

Author

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  • Anujit Chakraborty
  • Yoram Halevy
  • Kota Saito

Abstract

The paper establishes a tight relation between non-standard behaviors in the domains of risk and time, by considering a decision maker with non-expected utility preferences who believes that only present consumption is certain while any future consumption is uncertain. We provide the first complete characterizations of the two-way relations between the certainty effect and present biased temporal behavior, and between the common ratio effect and temporal reversals related to the common difference effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Anujit Chakraborty & Yoram Halevy & Kota Saito, 2019. "The Relation between Behavior under Risk and over Time," Working Papers tecipa-633, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:tor:tecipa:tecipa-633
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Drazen Prelec & George Loewenstein, 1991. "Decision Making Over Time and Under Uncertainty: A Common Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 37(7), pages 770-786, July.
    2. Machina, Mark J, 1982. ""Expected Utility" Analysis without the Independence Axiom," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(2), pages 277-323, March.
    3. Keren, Gideon & Roelofsma, Peter, 1995. "Immediacy and Certainty in Intertemporal Choice," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 287-297, September.
    4. O'Donoghue, Ted & Rabin, Matthew, 1997. "Doing It Now or Later," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt7t44m5b0, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    5. Matthew Rabin & Ted O'Donoghue, 1999. "Doing It Now or Later," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 103-124, March.
    6. Segal, Uzi, 1987. "The Ellsberg Paradox and Risk Aversion: An Anticipated Utility Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(1), pages 175-202, February.
    7. Kota Saito, 2011. "Strotz Meets Allais: Diminishing Impatience and the Certainty Effect: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2271-2275, August.
    8. Partha Dasgupta & Eric Maskin, 2005. "Uncertainty and Hyperbolic Discounting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1290-1299, September.
    9. Yoram Halevy, 2004. "Diminishing Impatience: Disentangling Time Preference from Uncertain Lifetime," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000185, UCLA Department of Economics.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Balbus, Łukasz & Reffett, Kevin & Woźny, Łukasz, 2022. "Time-consistent equilibria in dynamic models with recursive payoffs and behavioral discounting," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    2. Jonathan Chapman & Mark Dean & Pietro Ortoleva & Erik Snowberg & Colin Camerer, 2023. "Econographics," Journal of Political Economy Microeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 115-161.
    3. Kuroishi, Yusuke & Sawada, Yasuyuki, 2024. "On the stability of preferences: Experimental evidence from two disasters," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    4. Schneider, Mark, 2020. "Temptation-biased preferences for risk and time," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    5. Zhihua Li & Songfa Zhong, 2023. "Reference Dependence in Intertemporal Preference," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(1), pages 475-490, January.
    6. Groneck, Max & Ludwig, Alexander & Zimper, Alexander, 2024. "Who saves more, the naive or the sophisticated agent?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    7. Christopher P. Chambers & Federico Echenique & Alan D. Miller, 2023. "Decreasing Impatience," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 527-551, August.
    8. Kai Ruggeri & Amma Panin & Milica Vdovic & Bojana Većkalov & Nazeer Abdul-Salaam & Jascha Achterberg & Carla Akil & Jolly Amatya & Kanchan Amatya & Thomas Lind Andersen & Sibele D. Aquino & Arjoon Aru, 2022. "The globalizability of temporal discounting," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(10), pages 1386-1397, October.
    9. Benjamin Enke & Thomas W. Graeber, 2021. "Cognitive Uncertainty in Intertemporal Choice," CESifo Working Paper Series 9472, CESifo.
    10. Glenn W. Harrison & Morten I. Lau & Hong Il Yoo, 2025. "Constant Discounting, Temporal Instability, And Dynamic Inconsistency In Denmark: A Longitudinal Field Experiment," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 66(1), pages 363-392, February.
    11. Thomas F Epper & Helga Fehr-Duda, 2024. "RISK IN TIME: The Intertwined Nature of Risk Taking and Time Discounting," Post-Print hal-03473431, HAL.
    12. Holden, Stein T. & Tione, Sarah & Tilahun, Mesfin & Katengeza, Samson, 2025. "Elicitation Bias in Multiple Price Lists: A Field Experiment," CLTS Working Papers 3/25, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Centre for Land Tenure Studies.
    13. Federico Echenique & Gerelt Tserenjigmid, 2023. "Revealed preferences for dynamically inconsistent models," Papers 2305.14125, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    14. Ali al-Nowaihi & Sanjit Dhami, 2021. "Preferences over Time and under Uncertainty: Theoretical Foundations," CESifo Working Paper Series 9215, CESifo.
    15. Calcott, Paul & Petkov, Vladimir, 2024. "How innocuous is it to approximate globally decreasing impatience with quasi-hyperbolic discounting?," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    16. Anujit Chakraborty, 2021. "Present Bias," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(4), pages 1921-1961, July.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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