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A Generic Methodology for the Statistically Uniform & Comparable Evaluation of Automated Trading Platform Components

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  • Artur Sokolovsky
  • Luca Arnaboldi

Abstract

Although machine learning approaches have been widely used in the field of finance, to very successful degrees, these approaches remain bespoke to specific investigations and opaque in terms of explainability, comparability, and reproducibility. The primary objective of this research was to shed light upon this field by providing a generic methodology that was investigation-agnostic and interpretable to a financial markets practitioner, thus enhancing their efficiency, reducing barriers to entry, and increasing the reproducibility of experiments. The proposed methodology is showcased on two automated trading platform components. Namely, price levels, a well-known trading pattern, and a novel 2-step feature extraction method. The methodology relies on hypothesis testing, which is widely applied in other social and scientific disciplines to effectively evaluate the concrete results beyond simple classification accuracy. The main hypothesis was formulated to evaluate whether the selected trading pattern is suitable for use in the machine learning setting. Across the experiments we found that the use of the considered trading pattern in the machine learning setting is only partially supported by statistics, resulting in insignificant effect sizes (Rebound 7 - $0.64 \pm 1.02$, Rebound 11 $0.38 \pm 0.98$, and rebound 15 - $1.05 \pm 1.16$), but allowed the rejection of the null hypothesis. We showcased the generic methodology on a US futures market instrument and provided evidence that with this methodology we could easily obtain informative metrics beyond the more traditional performance and profitability metrics. This work is one of the first in applying this rigorous statistically-backed approach to the field of financial markets and we hope this may be a springboard for more research.

Suggested Citation

  • Artur Sokolovsky & Luca Arnaboldi, 2020. "A Generic Methodology for the Statistically Uniform & Comparable Evaluation of Automated Trading Platform Components," Papers 2009.09993, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2009.09993
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Manganelli, Simone, 2005. "Duration, volume and volatility impact of trades," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 377-399, November.
    2. Dufour, Alfonso & Engle, Robert F, 1999. "Time and the Price Impact of a Trade," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt62c0h04j, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    3. Grammig, Joachim & Wellner, Marc, 2002. "Modeling the interdependence of volatility and inter-transaction duration processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 369-400, February.
    4. Michael C. Munnix & Takashi Shimada & Rudi Schafer & Francois Leyvraz Thomas H. Seligman & Thomas Guhr & H. E. Stanley, 2012. "Identifying States of a Financial Market," Papers 1202.1623, arXiv.org.
    5. Bauwens, Luc & Giot, Pierre & Grammig, Joachim & Veredas, David, 2004. "A comparison of financial duration models via density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 589-609.
    6. Nikolay Miller & Yiming Yang & Bruce Sun & Guoyi Zhang, 2019. "Identification of technical analysis patterns with smoothing splines for bitcoin prices," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(12), pages 2289-2297, September.
    7. Alfonso Dufour & Robert F. Engle, 2000. "Time and the Price Impact of a Trade," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2467-2498, December.
    8. GRAMMIG , Joachim & WELLNER, Marc, 2002. "Modeling the interdependence of volatility and inter-transaction duration processes," LIDAM Reprints CORE 1534, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
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    10. Kissell, Robert, 2013. "The Science of Algorithmic Trading and Portfolio Management," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780124016897.
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    Cited by:

    1. Artur Sokolovsky & Luca Arnaboldi & Jaume Bacardit & Thomas Gross, 2021. "Volume-Centred Range Bars: Novel Interpretable Representation of Financial Markets Designed for Machine Learning Applications," Papers 2103.12419, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.

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