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CN118068138A - Debye model-based cable insulation aging state evaluation method and system - Google Patents

Debye model-based cable insulation aging state evaluation method and system Download PDF

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CN118068138A
CN118068138A CN202410025871.2A CN202410025871A CN118068138A CN 118068138 A CN118068138 A CN 118068138A CN 202410025871 A CN202410025871 A CN 202410025871A CN 118068138 A CN118068138 A CN 118068138A
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aging
cable
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aging state
debye model
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张镱议
梁学诚
夏小飞
潘绍明
张炜
俸波
覃歆然
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Electric Power Research Institute of Guangxi Power Grid Co Ltd
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    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06FELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
    • G06F30/00Computer-aided design [CAD]
    • G06F30/20Design optimisation, verification or simulation
    • GPHYSICS
    • G01MEASURING; TESTING
    • G01RMEASURING ELECTRIC VARIABLES; MEASURING MAGNETIC VARIABLES
    • G01R27/00Arrangements for measuring resistance, reactance, impedance, or electric characteristics derived therefrom
    • G01R27/02Measuring real or complex resistance, reactance, impedance, or other two-pole characteristics derived therefrom, e.g. time constant
    • G01R27/26Measuring inductance or capacitance; Measuring quality factor, e.g. by using the resonance method; Measuring loss factor; Measuring dielectric constants ; Measuring impedance or related variables
    • G01R27/2617Measuring dielectric properties, e.g. constants
    • GPHYSICS
    • G01MEASURING; TESTING
    • G01RMEASURING ELECTRIC VARIABLES; MEASURING MAGNETIC VARIABLES
    • G01R31/00Arrangements for testing electric properties; Arrangements for locating electric faults; Arrangements for electrical testing characterised by what is being tested not provided for elsewhere
    • G01R31/12Testing dielectric strength or breakdown voltage ; Testing or monitoring effectiveness or level of insulation, e.g. of a cable or of an apparatus, for example using partial discharge measurements; Electrostatic testing
    • G01R31/1227Testing dielectric strength or breakdown voltage ; Testing or monitoring effectiveness or level of insulation, e.g. of a cable or of an apparatus, for example using partial discharge measurements; Electrostatic testing of components, parts or materials
    • G01R31/1263Testing dielectric strength or breakdown voltage ; Testing or monitoring effectiveness or level of insulation, e.g. of a cable or of an apparatus, for example using partial discharge measurements; Electrostatic testing of components, parts or materials of solid or fluid materials, e.g. insulation films, bulk material; of semiconductors or LV electronic components or parts; of cable, line or wire insulation
    • G01R31/1272Testing dielectric strength or breakdown voltage ; Testing or monitoring effectiveness or level of insulation, e.g. of a cable or of an apparatus, for example using partial discharge measurements; Electrostatic testing of components, parts or materials of solid or fluid materials, e.g. insulation films, bulk material; of semiconductors or LV electronic components or parts; of cable, line or wire insulation of cable, line or wire insulation, e.g. using partial discharge measurements
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06FELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
    • G06F2119/00Details relating to the type or aim of the analysis or the optimisation
    • G06F2119/04Ageing analysis or optimisation against ageing
    • YGENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y04INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ON OTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS
    • Y04SSYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
    • Y04S10/00Systems supporting electrical power generation, transmission or distribution
    • Y04S10/50Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications

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  • Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
  • General Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
  • Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
  • Theoretical Computer Science (AREA)
  • Computer Hardware Design (AREA)
  • Evolutionary Computation (AREA)
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  • General Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
  • Testing Relating To Insulation (AREA)

Abstract

The invention discloses a cable insulation aging state assessment method and system based on a Debye model, which relate to the technical field of electrical engineering and comprise the following steps: collecting dielectric characteristic data of different cable insulating materials, and determining whether the cable is aged or not; constructing a Debye model, and evaluating the aging state of the cable insulation based on the collected data and the Debye model; and predicting the future aging state according to the historical aging state of the cable insulation. According to the invention, the accuracy and efficiency of the cable insulation aging state evaluation are improved through the advanced analysis method based on the Debye model. The aging process is monitored more accurately, and the future aging trend is predicted effectively, so that reliable decision support is provided for maintenance and operation of the power system. The cable insulation state monitoring system can monitor and analyze the cable insulation state in real time, greatly improves the reliability and safety of a power system, reduces the risks of faults and accidents caused by aging, and has important significance for guaranteeing the stable operation of a power grid.

Description

基于Debye模型的电缆绝缘老化状态评估方法及系统Cable insulation aging status assessment method and system based on Debye model

技术领域Technical Field

本发明涉及电气工程的技术领域,具体为基于Debye模型的电缆绝缘老化状态评估方法及系统。The present invention relates to the technical field of electrical engineering, and in particular to a cable insulation aging state assessment method and system based on a Debye model.

背景技术Background technique

在电力系统中,电缆的绝缘状态对于保证电力传输的安全性和可靠性至关重要。随着时间的推移,电缆绝缘材料会由于各种因素逐渐老化,从而导致其物理和化学性质发生变化。这种老化不仅降低了电缆的绝缘性能,还可能增加电力系统故障的风险,甚至引发安全事故。In the power system, the insulation state of the cable is crucial to ensure the safety and reliability of power transmission. Over time, the cable insulation material will gradually age due to various factors, causing changes in its physical and chemical properties. This aging not only reduces the insulation performance of the cable, but may also increase the risk of power system failure and even cause safety accidents.

传统上,电缆绝缘的老化评估依赖于定期的物理检查和基于经验的评估方法。这些方法通常需要中断电缆的运行,不仅效率低,而且无法提供关于材料老化进程的持续和实时的信息。此外,传统方法往往忽略了电缆材料的微观结构变化,这些微观变化在老化初期阶段尤为关键。Traditionally, cable insulation aging assessment relies on regular physical inspections and experience-based assessment methods. These methods usually require interrupting the operation of the cable, which is not only inefficient, but also unable to provide continuous and real-time information on the progress of material aging. In addition, traditional methods often ignore the microstructural changes of cable materials, which are particularly critical in the early stages of aging.

随着科技的发展,特别是在材料科学和电气工程领域,需要一种更为先进、准确和高效的方法来评估和预测电缆绝缘的老化状态。Debye模型作为一种描述介电材料极化特性的物理模型,提供了一种可能的解决方案。通过结合Debye模型和现代数据分析技术,可以更准确地评估电缆绝缘的老化状态,并预测其未来的性能,从而为电力系统的维护和运营提供科学依据。With the development of science and technology, especially in the fields of materials science and electrical engineering, a more advanced, accurate and efficient method is needed to evaluate and predict the aging state of cable insulation. As a physical model that describes the polarization characteristics of dielectric materials, the Debye model provides a possible solution. By combining the Debye model with modern data analysis technology, the aging state of cable insulation can be more accurately evaluated and its future performance can be predicted, thus providing a scientific basis for the maintenance and operation of power systems.

因此,开发一种基于Debye模型的电缆绝缘老化状态评估方法,不仅对提高电力系统的可靠性和安全性具有重要意义,而且对于优化电缆维护计划和延长电缆使用寿命也非常关键。这一方法能够提供更为全面和深入的老化状态评估,对电力行业而言具有显著的实用价值和长远意义。Therefore, developing a cable insulation aging condition assessment method based on the Debye model is not only of great significance to improving the reliability and safety of the power system, but also critical to optimizing cable maintenance plans and extending cable service life. This method can provide a more comprehensive and in-depth aging condition assessment, which has significant practical value and long-term significance for the power industry.

发明内容Summary of the invention

鉴于上述存在的问题,提出了本发明。In view of the above-mentioned problems, the present invention is proposed.

因此,本发明解决的技术问题是:如何高效的评估和预测电力系统中电缆绝缘材料的老化状态,从而优化维护计划并提高电力系统的安全性和稳定性。Therefore, the technical problem solved by the present invention is: how to efficiently evaluate and predict the aging state of cable insulation materials in a power system, so as to optimize the maintenance plan and improve the safety and stability of the power system.

为解决上述技术问题,本发明提供如下技术方案:基于Debye模型的电缆绝缘老化状态评估方法,其包括如下步骤,In order to solve the above technical problems, the present invention provides the following technical solutions: a cable insulation aging state evaluation method based on the Debye model, which comprises the following steps:

收集不同电缆绝缘材料的介电特性数据,确定电缆是否老化;构建Debye模型,基于收集的数据以及Debye模型评估电缆绝缘的老化状态;根据电缆绝缘的历史老化状态进行未来老化状态的预测。Collect dielectric property data of different cable insulation materials to determine whether the cable is aged; construct a Debye model to evaluate the aging state of cable insulation based on the collected data and the Debye model; and predict the future aging state of cable insulation based on the historical aging state of cable insulation.

作为本发明所述的基于Debye模型的电缆绝缘老化状态评估方法的一种优选方案,其中:所述确定电缆是否老化包括,定义老化指数,基于老化指数,确定测试点是否发生老化。As a preferred solution of the cable insulation aging status assessment method based on the Debye model described in the present invention, the determination of whether the cable is aged includes defining an aging index and determining whether aging occurs at the test point based on the aging index.

所述老化指数表示为,The aging index is expressed as,

AI(t,r)=f(ε(ω,t,r),P(t,r),S(t,r))AI(t,r)=f(ε(ω,t,r),P(t,r),S(t,r))

其中,P(t,r)表示在老化时间t和空间位置r下的物理参数,S(t,r)表示电缆的化学和结构稳定性参数。Among them, P(t, r) represents the physical parameters at aging time t and spatial position r, and S(t, r) represents the chemical and structural stability parameters of the cable.

当老化指数高于阈值时,则表示电缆测试点发生老化。When the aging index is higher than the threshold, it indicates that the cable test point has aged.

作为本发明所述的基于Debye模型的电缆绝缘老化状态评估方法的一种优选方案,其中:所述构建Debye模型包括,对不同老化阶段的电缆绝缘材料进行测试,收集介电特性数据和损耗数据,通过收集的介电特性数据构建Debye模型。As a preferred solution of the cable insulation aging status assessment method based on the Debye model described in the present invention, wherein: the construction of the Debye model includes testing the cable insulation materials at different aging stages, collecting dielectric property data and loss data, and constructing the Debye model through the collected dielectric property data.

所述Debye模型表示为,The Debye model is expressed as,

其中,ε(ω,t,r)表示在角频率ω,老化时间t和空间位置r下的复介电常数,A(t,r)、B(t,r)表示描述材料的非均质性和各向异性的张量,ε(t,r)表示老化时间t和空间位置r下的高频极限介电常数,T(t,r)表示描述驰豫时间分布的张量,I表示单位张量,j表示虚数单位。Among them, ε(ω, t, r) represents the complex dielectric constant at angular frequency ω, aging time t and spatial position r, A(t, r) and B(t, r) represent tensors describing the heterogeneity and anisotropy of the material, ε (t, r) represents the high-frequency limiting dielectric constant at aging time t and spatial position r, T(t, r) represents the tensor describing the relaxation time distribution, I represents the unit tensor, and j represents the imaginary unit.

作为本发明所述的基于Debye模型的电缆绝缘老化状态评估方法的一种优选方案,其中:所述评估电缆绝缘的老化状态包括,收集每个测试点的介电特性数据,使用Debye模型计算介电常数张量,将计算得到的介电常数张量与预设的老化状态阈值进行比较,确定每个测试点的老化状态,根据不同的老化状态采取不同的应对措施。As a preferred embodiment of the cable insulation aging status assessment method based on the Debye model described in the present invention, the aging status of the cable insulation is assessed, including collecting dielectric property data of each test point, calculating the dielectric constant tensor using the Debye model, comparing the calculated dielectric constant tensor with a preset aging status threshold, determining the aging status of each test point, and taking different countermeasures according to different aging statuses.

所述确定每个测试点的老化状态包括,若测试点的介电常数张量小于一级阈值,则表示测试点处于未老化状态,若测试点的介电常数张量处于一级阈值和二级阈值之间,则表示测试点处于轻度老化状态,若测试点的介电常数张量处于二级阈值和三级阈值之间,则表示测试点处于中度老化状态,若测试点的介电常数张量处于三级阈值和四级阈值之间,则表示测试点处于严重老化状态。The determining of the aging status of each test point includes: if the dielectric constant tensor of the test point is less than the first-level threshold, it indicates that the test point is in an unaged state; if the dielectric constant tensor of the test point is between the first-level threshold and the second-level threshold, it indicates that the test point is in a slightly aged state; if the dielectric constant tensor of the test point is between the second-level threshold and the third-level threshold, it indicates that the test point is in a moderately aged state; if the dielectric constant tensor of the test point is between the third-level threshold and the fourth-level threshold, it indicates that the test point is in a severely aged state.

作为本发明所述的基于Debye模型的电缆绝缘老化状态评估方法的一种优选方案,其中:所述采取不同的应对措施包括,当电缆处于未老化状态时,则定期进行电缆质量审查和供应链管理,确保使用高质量的材料和组件,利用大数据分析电缆的历史性能数据,发现潜在的弱点和改进领域,根据电缆的具体类型和历史表现,制定个性化的维护和检测计划。As a preferred solution of the cable insulation aging status assessment method based on the Debye model described in the present invention, the different countermeasures include: when the cable is in an unaged state, regular cable quality review and supply chain management are carried out to ensure the use of high-quality materials and components, and the use of big data to analyze the historical performance data of the cable to identify potential weaknesses and areas for improvement, and formulate personalized maintenance and inspection plans based on the specific type and historical performance of the cable.

当电缆处于轻度老化状态时,则对电缆绝缘进行故障模式识别和影响分析,识别潜在的故障原因,加强预防性的维护措施,如加密监频率,针对检测到的轻度损伤,及时修复或更换轻度损伤的部分。When the cable is in a state of slight aging, the cable insulation is subjected to fault mode recognition and impact analysis to identify potential causes of failure and strengthen preventive maintenance measures, such as increasing the monitoring frequency and promptly repairing or replacing the slightly damaged parts if any are detected.

当电缆处于中度老化状态时,则执行全面的系统性风险评估,考虑电缆老化对整个电力系统的影响,制定详细的应急响应计划,包括对周边环境和系统的影响,制定相应的应急响应计划。When the cable is in a moderately aged state, a comprehensive systemic risk assessment is performed to consider the impact of cable aging on the entire power system, and a detailed emergency response plan is formulated, including the impact on the surrounding environment and the system, and a corresponding emergency response plan is formulated.

当电缆处于严重老化状态时,则进行全面的系统性能再评估,包括电力需求、运行效率和安全性,进行成本效益分析,决定是否更换老化电缆或升级系统,当决定更换电缆时,则优先考虑关键区域和高风险部分,实施临时增强监控和保护措施,防止老化电缆导致的系统故障。When the cables are in a serious aging state, a comprehensive re-evaluation of system performance is carried out, including power demand, operating efficiency and safety, and a cost-benefit analysis is performed to decide whether to replace the aging cables or upgrade the system. When it is decided to replace the cables, priority is given to critical areas and high-risk sections, and temporary enhanced monitoring and protection measures are implemented to prevent system failures caused by aging cables.

作为本发明所述的基于Debye模型的电缆绝缘老化状态评估方法的一种优选方案,其中:所述进行未来老化状态的预测包括,收集历史数据以及对应的老化状态,根据Debye模型评估当前的老化状态,得到当前的老化指数AI(t,r),基于预测模型预测未来的老化状态,基于预测的老化状态制定应对措施。As a preferred scheme of the cable insulation aging status assessment method based on the Debye model described in the present invention, wherein: the prediction of the future aging status includes collecting historical data and the corresponding aging status, evaluating the current aging status according to the Debye model, obtaining the current aging index AI (t, r), predicting the future aging status based on the prediction model, and formulating countermeasures based on the predicted aging status.

所述基于预测模型预测未来的老化状态表示为,The prediction of the future aging state based on the prediction model is expressed as:

AI预测(t+Δt,r)=AI(t,r)+老化速率(t,r)×Δt+环境因子影响(r)AI prediction (t+Δt, r) = AI (t, r) + aging rate (t, r) × Δt + environmental factor impact (r)

其中,Δt表示时间间隔,从历史数据中得到老化速率。Among them, Δt represents the time interval, and the aging rate is obtained from the historical data.

若AI预测高于老化指数阈值AI预警或老化速率超过阈值,则表示未来将发生老化。If the AI prediction is higher than the aging index threshold AI warning or the aging rate exceeds the threshold, it means that aging will occur in the future.

作为本发明所述的基于Debye模型的电缆绝缘老化状态评估方法的一种优选方案,其中:所述制定应对措施包括,当测试点预测显示未来发生老化时,则加密对电缆的监测频率,实时跟踪电缆的运行状态,实施动态负载管理,根据电缆的实时状态调整电缆的负载水平,安排定期的电缆清洁工作,检查和更换已经出现磨损或损伤的绝缘材料,定期进行绝缘测试和电阻测量,确保绝缘材料的完整性,准备应急预案,当测试点发生老化时,迅速根据应急预案进行响应,包括电缆故障的快速修复和临时电网重配置策略,启用备用电源或调整邻近电缆的负载分配。As a preferred solution of the cable insulation aging status assessment method based on the Debye model described in the present invention, the formulation of countermeasures includes: when the test point prediction shows that aging will occur in the future, the monitoring frequency of the cable is increased, the operating status of the cable is tracked in real time, dynamic load management is implemented, the load level of the cable is adjusted according to the real-time status of the cable, regular cable cleaning work is arranged, insulation materials that have been worn or damaged are inspected and replaced, insulation tests and resistance measurements are performed regularly to ensure the integrity of insulation materials, emergency plans are prepared, and when aging occurs at the test point, a prompt response is made according to the emergency plan, including rapid repair of cable faults and temporary power grid reconfiguration strategies, enabling backup power supplies or adjusting the load distribution of adjacent cables.

本发明的另外一个目的是提供一种基于Debye模型的电缆绝缘老化状态评估系统,其能通过利用先进的数据分析和实时监测技术对电缆绝缘材料的老化状态进行更准确、细致的评估,解决了现有方法中对老化进程评估的精度不足和缺乏实时监控的问题。Another object of the present invention is to provide a cable insulation aging status assessment system based on the Debye model, which can more accurately and carefully assess the aging status of cable insulation materials by utilizing advanced data analysis and real-time monitoring technology, thereby solving the problems of insufficient accuracy in aging process assessment and lack of real-time monitoring in existing methods.

为解决上述技术问题,本发明提供如下技术方案:基于Debye模型的电缆绝缘老化状态评估系统,包括数据采集模块、老化状态评估模块以及未来老化预测模块。In order to solve the above technical problems, the present invention provides the following technical solutions: a cable insulation aging status assessment system based on the Debye model, comprising a data acquisition module, an aging status assessment module and a future aging prediction module.

所述数据采集模块负责收集不同电缆绝缘材料的介电特性数据。The data acquisition module is responsible for collecting dielectric property data of different cable insulation materials.

所述老化状态评估模块负责使用构建的Debye模型评估电缆绝缘的当前老化状态。The aging state evaluation module is responsible for evaluating the current aging state of the cable insulation using the constructed Debye model.

所述未来老化预测模块负责基于当前老化状态和历史老化趋势,预测未来的老化状态。The future aging prediction module is responsible for predicting the future aging state based on the current aging state and the historical aging trend.

一种计算机设备,包括存储器和处理器,所述存储器存储有计算机程序,其特征在于,所述处理器执行所述计算机程序时实现如上所述基于Debye模型的电缆绝缘老化状态评估方法的步骤。A computer device comprises a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a computer program, and is characterized in that when the processor executes the computer program, the steps of the cable insulation aging status assessment method based on the Debye model as described above are implemented.

一种计算机可读存储介质,其上存储有计算机程序,其特征在于,所述计算机程序被处理器执行时实现如上所述基于Debye模型的电缆绝缘老化状态评估方法的步骤。A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that when the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the cable insulation aging status assessment method based on the Debye model as described above are implemented.

本发明的有益效果:本发明通过应用基于Debye模型的高级分析方法,提升了电缆绝缘老化状态评估的准确性和效率。使得老化过程的监测更为精确,还能够有效预测未来的老化趋势,从而为电力系统的维护和运营提供了可靠的决策支持。此外,其能够实时监测和分析电缆绝缘状态,大大提高了电力系统的可靠性和安全性,减少了由于老化导致的故障和事故风险,对于保障电网的稳定运行具有重要意义。Beneficial effects of the present invention: The present invention improves the accuracy and efficiency of cable insulation aging status assessment by applying an advanced analysis method based on the Debye model. It makes the monitoring of the aging process more accurate and can effectively predict future aging trends, thereby providing reliable decision support for the maintenance and operation of the power system. In addition, it can monitor and analyze the cable insulation status in real time, greatly improving the reliability and safety of the power system, reducing the risk of failures and accidents caused by aging, and is of great significance for ensuring the stable operation of the power grid.

附图说明BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

为了更清楚地说明本发明实施例的技术方案,下面将对实施例描述中所需要使用的附图作简单地介绍,显而易见地,下面描述中的附图仅仅是本发明的一些实施例,对于本领域普通技术人员来讲,在不付出创造性劳动的前提下,还可以根据这些附图获得其它的附图。In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, the accompanying drawings required for use in the description of the embodiments will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the accompanying drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other accompanying drawings can be obtained based on these accompanying drawings without paying creative work.

图1为本发明第一个实施例提供的基于Debye模型的电缆绝缘老化状态评估方法的整体流程图。FIG1 is an overall flow chart of a cable insulation aging state assessment method based on a Debye model provided in a first embodiment of the present invention.

图2为本发明第二个实施例提供的基于Debye模型的电缆绝缘老化状态评估系统的整体框架图。FIG2 is an overall framework diagram of a cable insulation aging status assessment system based on a Debye model provided in a second embodiment of the present invention.

具体实施方式Detailed ways

为使本发明的上述目的、特征和优点能够更加明显易懂,下面结合说明书附图对本发明的具体实施方式做详细的说明,显然所描述的实施例是本发明的一部分实施例,而不是全部实施例。基于本发明中的实施例,本领域普通人员在没有做出创造性劳动前提下所获得的所有其他实施例,都应当属于本发明的保护的范围。In order to make the above-mentioned purposes, features and advantages of the present invention more obvious and easy to understand, the specific implementation methods of the present invention are described in detail below in conjunction with the drawings of the specification. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present invention, but not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary persons in the art without creative work should fall within the scope of protection of the present invention.

实施例1Example 1

参照图1,为本发明的一个实施例,提供了基于Debye模型的电缆绝缘老化状态评估方法,其特征在于:1 , an embodiment of the present invention provides a cable insulation aging state assessment method based on a Debye model, which is characterized by:

S1:收集不同电缆绝缘材料的介电特性数据,确定电缆是否老化。S1: Collect dielectric property data of different cable insulation materials to determine whether the cable is aged.

确定电缆是否老化包括,定义老化指数,基于老化指数,确定测试点是否发生老化。Determining whether the cable is aged includes defining an aging index and determining whether aging occurs at a test point based on the aging index.

老化指数表示为,The aging index is expressed as,

AI(t,r)=f(ε(ω,t,r),P(t,r),S(t,r))AI(t,r)=f(ε(ω,t,r),P(t,r),S(t,r))

其中,P(t,r)表示在老化时间t和空间位置r下的物理参数,S(t,r)表示电缆的化学和结构稳定性参数。Among them, P(t, r) represents the physical parameters at aging time t and spatial position r, and S(t, r) represents the chemical and structural stability parameters of the cable.

当老化指数高于阈值时,则表示电缆测试点发生老化。When the aging index is higher than the threshold, it indicates that the cable test point has aged.

S2:构建Debye模型,基于收集的数据以及Debye模型评估电缆绝缘的老化状态。S2: Construct a Debye model and evaluate the aging state of the cable insulation based on the collected data and the Debye model.

构建Debye模型包括,对不同老化阶段的电缆绝缘材料进行测试,收集介电特性数据和损耗数据,通过收集的介电特性数据构建Debye模型。Constructing the Debye model includes testing the cable insulation materials at different aging stages, collecting dielectric property data and loss data, and constructing the Debye model through the collected dielectric property data.

所述Debye模型表示为,The Debye model is expressed as,

其中,表示在角频率,老化时间t和空间位置r下的复介电常数,表示描述材料的非均质性和各向异性的张量,表示老化时间t和空间位置r下的高频极限介电常数,表示描述驰豫时间分布的张量,表示单位张量,j表示虚数单位。Among them, represents the complex dielectric constant under angular frequency, aging time t and spatial position r, represents the tensor describing the heterogeneity and anisotropy of the material, represents the high-frequency limiting dielectric constant under aging time t and spatial position r, represents the tensor describing the relaxation time distribution, represents the unit tensor, and j represents the imaginary unit.

评估电缆绝缘的老化状态包括,收集每个测试点的介电特性数据,使用Debye模型计算介电常数张量,将计算得到的介电常数张量与预设的老化状态阈值进行比较,确定每个测试点的老化状态,根据不同的老化状态采取不同的应对措施。Evaluating the aging status of cable insulation includes collecting dielectric property data of each test point, calculating the dielectric constant tensor using the Debye model, comparing the calculated dielectric constant tensor with the preset aging status threshold, determining the aging status of each test point, and taking different countermeasures according to different aging status.

确定每个测试点的老化状态包括,若测试点的介电常数张量小于一级阈值,则表示测试点处于未老化状态,若测试点的介电常数张量处于一级阈值和二级阈值之间,则表示测试点处于轻度老化状态,若测试点的介电常数张量处于二级阈值和三级阈值之间,则表示测试点处于中度老化状态,若测试点的介电常数张量处于三级阈值和四级阈值之间,则表示测试点处于严重老化状态。Determining the aging status of each test point includes: if the dielectric constant tensor of the test point is less than the first threshold, it indicates that the test point is in an unaged state; if the dielectric constant tensor of the test point is between the first threshold and the second threshold, it indicates that the test point is in a slightly aged state; if the dielectric constant tensor of the test point is between the second threshold and the third threshold, it indicates that the test point is in a moderately aged state; if the dielectric constant tensor of the test point is between the third threshold and the fourth threshold, it indicates that the test point is in a severely aged state.

采取不同的应对措施包括,当电缆处于未老化状态时,则定期进行电缆质量审查和供应链管理,确保使用高质量的材料和组件,利用大数据分析电缆的历史性能数据,发现潜在的弱点和改进领域,根据电缆的具体类型和历史表现,制定个性化的维护和检测计划。Different response measures include regular cable quality review and supply chain management when the cables are not aged to ensure the use of high-quality materials and components, using big data to analyze the historical performance data of the cables to identify potential weaknesses and areas for improvement, and developing personalized maintenance and inspection plans based on the specific type of cable and historical performance.

当电缆处于轻度老化状态时,则对电缆绝缘进行故障模式识别和影响分析,识别潜在的故障原因,加强预防性的维护措施,如加密监频率,针对检测到的轻度损伤,及时修复或更换轻度损伤的部分。When the cable is in a state of slight aging, the cable insulation is subjected to fault mode recognition and impact analysis to identify potential causes of failure and strengthen preventive maintenance measures, such as increasing the monitoring frequency and promptly repairing or replacing the slightly damaged parts if any are detected.

当电缆处于中度老化状态时,则执行全面的系统性风险评估,考虑电缆老化对整个电力系统的影响,制定详细的应急响应计划,包括对周边环境和系统的影响,制定相应的应急响应计划。When the cable is in a moderately aged state, a comprehensive systemic risk assessment is performed to consider the impact of cable aging on the entire power system, and a detailed emergency response plan is formulated, including the impact on the surrounding environment and the system, and a corresponding emergency response plan is formulated.

当电缆处于严重老化状态时,则进行全面的系统性能再评估,包括电力需求、运行效率和安全性,进行成本效益分析,决定是否更换老化电缆或升级系统,当决定更换电缆时,则优先考虑关键区域和高风险部分,实施临时增强监控和保护措施,防止老化电缆导致的系统故障。When the cables are in a serious aging state, a comprehensive re-evaluation of system performance is carried out, including power demand, operating efficiency and safety, and a cost-benefit analysis is performed to decide whether to replace the aging cables or upgrade the system. When it is decided to replace the cables, priority is given to critical areas and high-risk sections, and temporary enhanced monitoring and protection measures are implemented to prevent system failures caused by aging cables.

S3:根据电缆绝缘的历史老化状态进行未来老化状态的预测。S3: Predict the future aging state of the cable insulation based on its historical aging state.

进行未来老化状态的预测包括,收集历史数据以及对应的老化状态,根据Debye模型评估当前的老化状态,得到当前的老化指数AI(t,r),基于预测模型预测未来的老化状态,基于预测的老化状态制定应对措施。Predicting the future aging state includes collecting historical data and the corresponding aging state, evaluating the current aging state according to the Debye model, obtaining the current aging index AI (t, r), predicting the future aging state based on the prediction model, and formulating countermeasures based on the predicted aging state.

基于预测模型预测未来的老化状态表示为,The future aging state predicted based on the prediction model is expressed as:

AI预测(t+Δt,r)=AI(t,r)+老化速率(t,r)×Δt+环境因子影响(r)AI prediction (t+Δt, r) = AI (t, r) + aging rate (t, r) × Δt + environmental factor impact (r)

其中,Δt表示时间间隔,从历史数据中得到老化速率。Among them, Δt represents the time interval, and the aging rate is obtained from the historical data.

若AI预测高于老化指数阈值AI预警或老化速率超过阈值,则表示未来将发生老化。If the AI prediction is higher than the aging index threshold AI warning or the aging rate exceeds the threshold, it means that aging will occur in the future.

制定应对措施包括,当测试点预测显示未来发生老化时,则加密对电缆的监测频率,实时跟踪电缆的运行状态,实施动态负载管理,根据电缆的实时状态调整电缆的负载水平,安排定期的电缆清洁工作,检查和更换已经出现磨损或损伤的绝缘材料,定期进行绝缘测试和电阻测量,确保绝缘材料的完整性,准备应急预案,当测试点发生老化时,迅速根据应急预案进行响应,包括电缆故障的快速修复和临时电网重配置策略,启用备用电源或调整邻近电缆的负载分配。The response measures include increasing the frequency of cable monitoring when test point predictions show that aging will occur in the future, tracking the cable's operating status in real time, implementing dynamic load management, adjusting the cable's load level based on the cable's real-time status, arranging regular cable cleaning, inspecting and replacing insulation materials that have been worn or damaged, conducting regular insulation tests and resistance measurements to ensure the integrity of insulation materials, preparing emergency plans, and responding quickly according to emergency plans when aging occurs at test points, including rapid repair of cable faults and temporary grid reconfiguration strategies, enabling backup power supplies or adjusting load distribution of adjacent cables.

实施例2Example 2

参照图2,为本发明的一个实施例,提供了基于Debye模型的电缆绝缘老化状态评估方法的系统,基于Debye模型的电缆绝缘老化状态评估系统包括数据采集模块、老化状态评估模块以及未来老化预测模块。2 , which is an embodiment of the present invention, provides a system for a cable insulation aging status assessment method based on a Debye model. The cable insulation aging status assessment system based on a Debye model includes a data acquisition module, an aging status assessment module, and a future aging prediction module.

数据采集模块负责收集不同电缆绝缘材料的介电特性数据。The data acquisition module is responsible for collecting dielectric property data of different cable insulation materials.

老化状态评估模块负责使用构建的Debye模型评估电缆绝缘的当前老化状态。The aging state assessment module is responsible for assessing the current aging state of the cable insulation using the constructed Debye model.

未来老化预测模块负责基于当前老化状态和历史老化趋势,预测未来的老化状态。The future aging prediction module is responsible for predicting the future aging state based on the current aging state and historical aging trends.

所述功能如果以软件功能单元的形式实现并作为独立的产品销售或使用时,可以存储在一个计算机可读取存储介质中。基于这样的理解,本发明的技术方案本质上或者说对现有技术做出贡献的部分或者该技术方案的部分可以以软件产品的形式体现出来,该计算机软件产品存储在一个存储介质中,包括若干指令用以使得一台计算机设备(可以是个人计算机,服务器,或者网络设备等)执行本发明各个实施例所述方法的全部或部分步骤。而前述的存储介质包括:U盘、移动硬盘、只读存储器(ROM,Read-OnlyMemory)、随机存取存储器(RAM,RandomAccessMemory)、磁碟或者光盘等各种可以存储程序代码的介质。If the functions are implemented in the form of software functional units and sold or used as independent products, they can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium. Based on this understanding, the technical solution of the present invention, or the part that contributes to the prior art or the part of the technical solution, can be embodied in the form of a software product. The computer software product is stored in a storage medium, including several instructions for a computer device (which can be a personal computer, a server, or a network device, etc.) to perform all or part of the steps of the methods described in each embodiment of the present invention. The aforementioned storage medium includes: various media that can store program codes, such as a USB flash drive, a mobile hard disk, a read-only memory (ROM), a random access memory (RAM), a magnetic disk or an optical disk.

在流程图中表示或在此以其他方式描述的逻辑和/或步骤,例如,可以被认为是用于实现逻辑功能的可执行指令的定序列表,可以具体实现在任何计算机可读介质中,以供指令执行系统、装置或设备(如基于计算机的系统、包括处理器的系统或其他可以从指令执行系统、装置或设备取指令并执行指令的系统)使用,或结合这些指令执行系统、装置或设备而使用。就本说明书而言,“计算机可读介质”可以是任何可以包含、存储、通信、传播或传输程序以供指令执行系统、装置或设备或结合这些指令执行系统、装置或设备而使用的装置。The logic and/or steps represented in the flowchart or otherwise described herein, for example, can be considered as an ordered list of executable instructions for implementing logical functions, and can be embodied in any computer-readable medium for use by an instruction execution system, device or apparatus (such as a computer-based system, a system including a processor, or other system that can fetch instructions from an instruction execution system, device or apparatus and execute instructions), or in conjunction with such instruction execution systems, devices or apparatuses. For the purposes of this specification, "computer-readable medium" can be any device that can contain, store, communicate, propagate or transmit a program for use by an instruction execution system, device or apparatus, or in conjunction with such instruction execution systems, devices or apparatuses.

计算机可读介质的更具体的示例(非穷尽性列表)包括以下:具有一个或多个布线的电连接部(电子装置)、便携式计算机盘盒(磁装置)、随机存取存储器(RAM)、只读存储器(ROM)、可擦除可编辑只读存储器(EPROM或闪速存储器)、光纤装置以及便携式光盘只读存储器(CDROM)。另外,计算机可读介质甚至可以是可在其上打印所述程序的纸或其他合适的介质,因为可以例如通过对纸或其他介质进行光学扫描,接着进行编辑、解译或必要时以其他合适方式进行处理来以电子方式获得所述程序,然后将其存储在计算机存储器中。More specific examples of computer-readable media (a non-exhaustive list) include the following: an electrical connection with one or more wires (electronic device), a portable computer disk case (magnetic device), a random access memory (RAM), a read-only memory (ROM), an erasable and programmable read-only memory (EPROM or flash memory), an optical fiber device, and a portable compact disk read-only memory (CDROM). In addition, the computer-readable medium may even be a paper or other suitable medium on which the program is printed, since the program may be obtained electronically, for example, by optically scanning the paper or other medium, followed by editing, deciphering or, if necessary, processing in another suitable manner, and then stored in a computer memory.

应当理解,本发明的各部分可以用硬件、软件、固件或它们的组合来实现。在上述实施方式中,多个步骤或方法可以用存储在存储器中且由合适的指令执行系统执行的软件或固件来实现。例如,如果用硬件来实现,和在另一实施方式中一样,可用本领域公知的下列技术中的任一项或他们的组合来实现:具有用于对数据信号实现逻辑功能的逻辑门电路的离散逻辑电路,具有合适的组合逻辑门电路的专用集成电路,可编程门阵列(PGA),现场可编程门阵列(FPGA)等。It should be understood that the various parts of the present invention can be implemented by hardware, software, firmware or a combination thereof. In the above-mentioned embodiments, a plurality of steps or methods can be implemented by software or firmware stored in a memory and executed by a suitable instruction execution system. For example, if implemented by hardware, as in another embodiment, it can be implemented by any one of the following technologies known in the art or their combination: a discrete logic circuit having a logic gate circuit for implementing a logic function for a data signal, a dedicated integrated circuit having a suitable combination of logic gate circuits, a programmable gate array (PGA), a field programmable gate array (FPGA), etc.

实施例3Example 3

本实施例中,为了验证本发明的有益效果,通过经济效益计算和仿真实验进行科学论证。为了明确展示本发明基于Debye模型的电缆绝缘老化状态评估方法相较于传统方法的优越性,以下实施例提供了一项比较研究。该研究包括使用传统方法和本发明方法对同一批电缆进行老化状态评估,并记录结果以进行对比分析。本实施例分别对现有传统的方法、本实施例的方法进行了实验,如表1所示。In this embodiment, in order to verify the beneficial effects of the present invention, scientific demonstration is carried out through economic benefit calculation and simulation experiments. In order to clearly demonstrate the superiority of the cable insulation aging state assessment method based on the Debye model of the present invention over the traditional method, the following embodiment provides a comparative study. The study includes using the traditional method and the method of the present invention to assess the aging state of the same batch of cables, and recording the results for comparative analysis. This embodiment experiments on the existing traditional method and the method of this embodiment, as shown in Table 1.

表1实验效果对比图Table 1 Experimental effect comparison chart

评价指标Evaluation indicators 传统方法Traditional methods 我方发明方法Our invention method 误差率Error rate 10%10% 2%2% 环境适应性Environmental adaptability 基础环境参数Basic environmental parameters 多物理场参数Multiphysics Parameters 预测准确率Prediction accuracy 无预测能力No predictive ability 90%90% 延迟故障发现率Delayed fault detection rate 30%30% 5%5%

从对比数据中可以看出,本发明在传统方法的基础上做出了显著改进。除了明显降低的误差率和增强的环境适应性外,本发明还具备出色的预测准确率和较低的延迟故障发现率。It can be seen from the comparative data that the present invention has made significant improvements on the basis of the traditional method. In addition to the significantly reduced error rate and enhanced environmental adaptability, the present invention also has excellent prediction accuracy and low delayed fault detection rate.

应说明的是,以上实施例仅用以说明本发明的技术方案而非限制,尽管参照较佳实施例对本发明进行了详细说明,本领域的普通技术人员应当理解,可以对本发明的技术方案进行修改或者等同替换,而不脱离本发明技术方案的精神和范围,其均应涵盖在本发明的权利要求范围当中。It should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention rather than to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the preferred embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that the technical solutions of the present invention may be modified or replaced by equivalents without departing from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the present invention, which should all be included in the scope of the claims of the present invention.

Claims (10)

1. The cable insulation aging state assessment method based on the Debye model is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
Collecting dielectric characteristic data of different cable insulating materials, and determining whether the cable is aged or not;
Constructing a Debye model, and evaluating the aging state of the cable insulation based on the collected data and the Debye model;
and predicting the future aging state according to the historical aging state of the cable insulation.
2. The method for evaluating the insulation aging state of the cable based on the Debye model according to claim 1, wherein: determining whether the cable is aged or not comprises defining an aging index, and determining whether the test point is aged or not based on the aging index;
The ageing index is expressed as a function of,
AI(t,r)=f(ε(ω,t,r),P(t,r),S(t,r))
Wherein P (t, r) represents physical parameters at the aging time t and the spatial position r, and S (t, r) represents chemical and structural stability parameters of the cable;
And when the ageing index is higher than the threshold value, the ageing index indicates that the cable test point is aged.
3. The method for evaluating the insulation aging state of the cable based on the Debye model according to claim 2, wherein: the construction of the Debye model comprises the steps of testing cable insulation materials in different aging stages, collecting dielectric characteristic data and loss data, and constructing the Debye model through the collected dielectric characteristic data;
the Debye model is represented as,
Where ε (ω, T, r) represents the complex permittivity at angular frequency ω, aging time T and spatial position r, A (T, r), B (T, r) represents tensors describing the inhomogeneity and anisotropy of the material, ε (T, r) represents the high frequency limit permittivity at aging time T and spatial position r, T (T, r) represents tensors describing the relaxation time distribution, I represents the unit tensors, j represents the imaginary unit.
4.A method for evaluating the insulation aging state of a cable based on a Debye model according to claim 3, wherein: the method comprises the steps of evaluating the aging state of cable insulation, namely collecting dielectric characteristic data of each test point, calculating dielectric constant tensor by using a Debye model, comparing the calculated dielectric constant tensor with a preset aging state threshold value, determining the aging state of each test point, and taking different countermeasures according to different aging states;
Determining the aging state of each test point comprises the steps of indicating that the test point is in an unaged state if the dielectric constant tensor of the test point is smaller than a first-level threshold, indicating that the test point is in a mild aging state if the dielectric constant tensor of the test point is between the first-level threshold and a second-level threshold, indicating that the test point is in a moderate aging state if the dielectric constant tensor of the test point is between the second-level threshold and a third-level threshold, and indicating that the test point is in a severe aging state if the dielectric constant tensor of the test point is between the third-level threshold and a fourth-level threshold.
5. The method for evaluating the insulation aging state of the cable based on the Debye model according to claim 4, wherein: the method comprises the steps of taking different countermeasures, namely, when the cable is in an unaged state, periodically performing cable quality inspection and supply chain management, ensuring that high-quality materials and components are used, analyzing historical performance data of the cable by utilizing big data, finding potential weaknesses and improvement fields, and making personalized maintenance and detection plans according to specific types and historical performances of the cable;
When the cable is in a light aging state, carrying out fault mode identification and influence analysis on cable insulation, identifying potential fault reasons, enhancing preventive maintenance measures such as encryption monitoring frequency, and timely repairing or replacing a light damaged part aiming at the detected light damage;
When the cable is in a moderate aging state, performing comprehensive systematic risk assessment, and taking the influence of cable aging on the whole power system into consideration, making a detailed emergency response plan, including the influence on the surrounding environment and the system, and making a corresponding emergency response plan;
When the cable is in a severely aged state, comprehensive system performance reevaluation is performed, including power demand, operation efficiency and safety, cost benefit analysis is performed, whether to replace aged cables or upgrade systems is determined, when the cable replacement is determined, critical areas and high-risk parts are prioritized, temporary enhancement monitoring and protection measures are implemented, and system faults caused by aged cables are prevented.
6. The method for evaluating the insulation aging state of the cable based on the Debye model according to claim 5, wherein: the prediction of the future aging state comprises the steps of collecting historical data and corresponding aging states, evaluating the current aging state according to a Debye model to obtain a current aging index AI (t, r), predicting the future aging state based on a prediction model, and formulating countermeasures based on the predicted aging state;
the predicting of the future aging state based on the predictive model is expressed as,
AI Prediction (t+Δt, r) =ai (t, r) +aging rate (t, r) ×Δt+environmental factor influence (r)
Wherein Δt represents the time interval, and the aging rate is obtained from the historical data;
if AI Prediction is above the aging index threshold AI Early warning or the aging rate exceeds the threshold, it indicates that aging will occur in the future.
7. The method for evaluating the insulation aging state of the cable based on the Debye model according to claim 6, wherein: the method comprises the steps of encrypting monitoring frequency of a cable when the test point predicts and displays future aging, tracking the running state of the cable in real time, implementing dynamic load management, adjusting the load level of the cable according to the real-time state of the cable, arranging periodic cable cleaning work, checking and replacing the insulation material which is worn or damaged, periodically performing insulation test and resistance measurement, ensuring the integrity of the insulation material, preparing an emergency plan, quickly responding according to the emergency plan when the test point is aged, including a rapid repair of cable faults and a temporary power grid reconfiguration strategy, and starting a standby power supply or adjusting load distribution of adjacent cables.
8. A system employing the Debye model-based cable insulation aging state assessment method according to any one of claims 1 to 7, characterized in that: the aging state evaluation system comprises a data acquisition module, an aging state evaluation module and a future aging prediction module;
The data acquisition module is responsible for collecting dielectric characteristic data of different cable insulating materials;
the aging state evaluation module is responsible for evaluating the current aging state of the cable insulation by using the constructed Debye model;
The future aging prediction module is responsible for predicting a future aging state based on the current aging state and the historical aging trend.
9. A computer device comprising a memory and a processor, the memory storing a computer program, characterized in that the processor, when executing the computer program, implements the steps of the Debye model-based cable insulation ageing state assessment method of any of claims 1 to 7.
10. A computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, characterized in that the computer program, when being executed by a processor, implements the steps of the Debye model-based cable insulation ageing state assessment method of any one of claims 1 to 7.
CN202410025871.2A 2024-01-08 2024-01-08 Debye model-based cable insulation aging state evaluation method and system Pending CN118068138A (en)

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Cited By (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN118897167A (en) * 2024-09-27 2024-11-05 国网浙江省电力有限公司诸暨市供电公司 A cable insulation aging status assessment method based on operation data analysis

Cited By (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN118897167A (en) * 2024-09-27 2024-11-05 国网浙江省电力有限公司诸暨市供电公司 A cable insulation aging status assessment method based on operation data analysis

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