Papers by Agnès Bénassy-quéré
• There are three different, non-mutually exclusive lines of explanation for the crisis: wrong in... more • There are three different, non-mutually exclusive lines of explanation for the crisis: wrong incentives in the financial sector, unsustainable macroeconomic outcomes, and misunderstood and mismanaged systemic complexity. These yield different sets of policy recommendations. • Steps have been taken to address several issues -overhaul of financial regulation, supervisory reform, changes in the monetary policy framework -but some crucial themes are still to be addressed. • On the regulatory front, moral hazard, separation of retail and investment banking, the desirable size of the financial institutions, and the impact of new capital regulations on the cost of capital have to be resolved. • On the macro-financial front, the crisis has shown that economic policy must encompass risk-management, and has raised questions about the role of central banks in financial stability. There is no agreement as to how much current-account imbalances contributed to financial instability, and the history of peer-pressure-based surveillance does not bode well for the newly-created G-20 framework for sustainable growth. Previously published as CEPII (Centre d'études prospectives et d'informations internationales) working document 2009-28.
he recent sovereign debt crisis has given an impetus to the debate on tax cooperation in the Euro... more he recent sovereign debt crisis has given an impetus to the debate on tax cooperation in the European union. Tax competition is praised for its positive effect on government efficiency but also accused of distorting public and private choices. This Note argues that, although the taxation of the most mobile bases has become lighter since the mid 1990s, the responsibility of tax competition in Europe is unclear, except for corporate taxation. Consequently, the authors focus on the taxation of firms and mainly on the corporate income tax (CIT), where many distortions and inefficiencies arise from the combination of rate and base competition. There is room for tax harmonization/cooperation that would reduce distortions such as high compliance costs, tax planning and funding distortions as they are impediments to a smooth functioning of the single market. In addition, one challenge of tax harmonization/cooperation on corporate taxation in the EU would be to move a collection of "small" countries in the grip of fiscal competition into one "big" player, which would raise the leeway for tax policy. Consistently, the authors are putting forward three proposals. First, the Note recommends reviving the European project of a Common Consolidated Corporate Tax Base (CCCTB) or some part of it, through the "enhanced cooperation" scheme or an ad hoc initiative or willing countries. Second, the European banking union would remain incomplete without a harmonization of tax regimes. The authors suggest all specific taxes on systemic banks covered by the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) to be transferred at the central level and merged into a single Financial Activity Tax (FAT). The FAT could fund the Single Resolution Fund (SRF) and accelerate the building up of a credible fiscal backstop. This step would also move banks in the area of taxation to the European level corresponding to the single supervision. The receipts could later form the first building block of a euro area budget. Once the two first proposals have been implemented, a further step in the direction of a euro area budget could be to transfer at the euro area level the ability to raise the CIT from the banking sect or. A potential problem is that CIT rates widely differ across euro area countries. One solution would be to apply a single CIT rate at the euro area level, and let national government impose national surcharges when necessary to meet their national CIT rate.
The impact of Central Bank intervention on exchange rate forecasts heterogeneity
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2007
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishe
Although data limitations prevents us from drawing very general results in terms of time and coun... more Although data limitations prevents us from drawing very general results in terms of time and country samples, our empirical investigation shows that central bank interventions can significantly raise the heterogeneity of monthly expectations at the 1 month, 3 months and 12 months horizons in the case of official (especially unexpected) interventions (DEM-EUR/USD) or of expected interventions and "false" rumours (JPY/USD). Hence, central bank intervention can be viewed as able to move market opinions, albeit in a way which is different for the two markets.
Journal of International Money and Finance, Feb 1, 2002
In this paper, we investigate the effects of official interventions on the (short run) evolution ... more In this paper, we investigate the effects of official interventions on the (short run) evolution and volatility of exchange rates. To this aim, we rely on a new measure of volatility implied by the FIGARCH model that outperforms the traditionally used GARCH one. It is found that central bank interventions exert an incorrectly signed effect on the levels of exchange rates and tend to increase their volatility in the short run. In general, our results also show that the traditional GARCH estimations tend to underestimate the effects in terms of volatility. 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.
7. Les économistes, la politique économique et la crise
Presses Universitaires de France eBooks, 2010
Les économistes, la politique économique et la crise
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Feb 1, 2010
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Economic Policy: Theory and Practice. Second edition
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2018
- Comprehensive and systematic approach to economic policy - Covers key issues: fiscal deficits, ... more - Comprehensive and systematic approach to economic policy - Covers key issues: fiscal deficits, unconventional monetary policies, global imbalances, growth strategies, tax reform design, inequality in both breadth and depth - Provides insight into both real-world dilemmas and analytical tools to evaluate possible policies - Written by leading economists with policy experience
Vers une redéfinition des 'circonstances exceptionnelles' du Pacte de stabilité et de croissance
In Memoriam Hélène Raymond-Feingold (1966-2017)
Revue économique, 2017
Euro-Dollar: Face-to-Face
La Lettre du CEPII, Jun 1, 2008
The financial crisis that began during the summer of 2007 accelerated the depreciation of the dol... more The financial crisis that began during the summer of 2007 accelerated the depreciation of the dollar. Has the dollar now fallen far enough for global disequilibria to be reabsorbed and for a reappreciation to take place? What do the two methods commonly used to determine medium- or long-term equilibrium exchange rates tell us? The results they give differ, but they both indicate that the dollar and the euro are overvalued in real effective terms. The two currencies should therefore depreciate in relation to other currencies. The abruptness of the dollar's depreciation since summer 2007 might mean that the U.S. currency's current weakness will be relatively short-lived. As for the euro, its depreciation against other currencies is countered by the fact that it forms the main alternative to the dollar.
La Lettre du CEPII, Nov 1, 2005
La hausse mondiale du prix du pétrole constitue un sujet de préoccupation majeur dans tous les pa... more La hausse mondiale du prix du pétrole constitue un sujet de préoccupation majeur dans tous les pays importateurs nets. Pourtant, cette hausse a été partiellement amortie dans la zone euro par l'appréciation de la monnaie unique. Ainsi, entre décembre 2001 et septembre 2005, le prix du pétrole a augmenté de 233% en dollars mais de "seulement" 138% en euros (graphique 1). Or, au sein de la zone euro, c'est bien le prix en euros et non en dollars qui importe à la fois pour le consommateur (dont les revenus sont en général exprimés en euros) et pour l'entreprise (dont les marchés sont principalement tarifés en euros). Le fait que l'euro se soit apprécié en même temps que le prix du pétrole augmentait a limité les pertes de pouvoir d'achat des consommateurs et le renchérissement des coûts des entreprises. L'euro a donc contribué à une faible transmission de la hausse des prix du pétrole à l'inflation de la zone. Cependant, l'appréciation de l'euro a constitué un choc de demande défavorable qui, couplé au choc d'offre, lui aussi défavorable, provoqué par la hausse des prix pétroliers, a eu pour effet de ralentir l'activité (encadré 1). En prenant un peu de recul, on constate que cette évolution observée sur les trois dernières années, et interrompue en fin d'année 2005, est relativement atypique. Sur la période 1974-2005, la corrélation entre le prix du pétrole en dollar et le taux de change euro/dollar 1 est de -0,42. Ainsi, l'euro a eu tendance à baisser en moyenne lorsque le prix du pétrole augmentait. Le graphique 2 montre que ce mouvement de ciseaux a été particulièrement marqué lors du contre-choc pétrolier de 1986 ainsi qu'au cours des deux premières années de la remontée des prix du pétrole, en 1999-2000.
La Lettre du CEPII, Nov 1, 2005
La hausse mondiale du prix du pétrole constitue un sujet de préoccupation majeur dans tous les pa... more La hausse mondiale du prix du pétrole constitue un sujet de préoccupation majeur dans tous les pays importateurs nets. Pourtant, cette hausse a été partiellement amortie dans la zone euro par l'appréciation de la monnaie unique. Ainsi, entre décembre 2001 et septembre 2005, le prix du pétrole a augmenté de 233% en dollars mais de "seulement" 138% en euros (graphique 1). Or, au sein de la zone euro, c'est bien le prix en euros et non en dollars qui importe à la fois pour le consommateur (dont les revenus sont en général exprimés en euros) et pour l'entreprise (dont les marchés sont principalement tarifés en euros). Le fait que l'euro se soit apprécié en même temps que le prix du pétrole augmentait a limité les pertes de pouvoir d'achat des consommateurs et le renchérissement des coûts des entreprises. L'euro a donc contribué à une faible transmission de la hausse des prix du pétrole à l'inflation de la zone. Cependant, l'appréciation de l'euro a constitué un choc de demande défavorable qui, couplé au choc d'offre, lui aussi défavorable, provoqué par la hausse des prix pétroliers, a eu pour effet de ralentir l'activité (encadré 1). En prenant un peu de recul, on constate que cette évolution observée sur les trois dernières années, et interrompue en fin d'année 2005, est relativement atypique. Sur la période 1974-2005, la corrélation entre le prix du pétrole en dollar et le taux de change euro/dollar 1 est de -0,42. Ainsi, l'euro a eu tendance à baisser en moyenne lorsque le prix du pétrole augmentait. Le graphique 2 montre que ce mouvement de ciseaux a été particulièrement marqué lors du contre-choc pétrolier de 1986 ainsi qu'au cours des deux premières années de la remontée des prix du pétrole, en 1999-2000.
La Lettre du CEPII, Nov 1, 2005
La hausse mondiale du prix du pétrole constitue un sujet de préoccupation majeur dans tous les pa... more La hausse mondiale du prix du pétrole constitue un sujet de préoccupation majeur dans tous les pays importateurs nets. Pourtant, cette hausse a été partiellement amortie dans la zone euro par l'appréciation de la monnaie unique. Ainsi, entre décembre 2001 et septembre 2005, le prix du pétrole a augmenté de 233% en dollars mais de "seulement" 138% en euros (graphique 1). Or, au sein de la zone euro, c'est bien le prix en euros et non en dollars qui importe à la fois pour le consommateur (dont les revenus sont en général exprimés en euros) et pour l'entreprise (dont les marchés sont principalement tarifés en euros). Le fait que l'euro se soit apprécié en même temps que le prix du pétrole augmentait a limité les pertes de pouvoir d'achat des consommateurs et le renchérissement des coûts des entreprises. L'euro a donc contribué à une faible transmission de la hausse des prix du pétrole à l'inflation de la zone. Cependant, l'appréciation de l'euro a constitué un choc de demande défavorable qui, couplé au choc d'offre, lui aussi défavorable, provoqué par la hausse des prix pétroliers, a eu pour effet de ralentir l'activité (encadré 1). En prenant un peu de recul, on constate que cette évolution observée sur les trois dernières années, et interrompue en fin d'année 2005, est relativement atypique. Sur la période 1974-2005, la corrélation entre le prix du pétrole en dollar et le taux de change euro/dollar 1 est de -0,42. Ainsi, l'euro a eu tendance à baisser en moyenne lorsque le prix du pétrole augmentait. Le graphique 2 montre que ce mouvement de ciseaux a été particulièrement marqué lors du contre-choc pétrolier de 1986 ainsi qu'au cours des deux premières années de la remontée des prix du pétrole, en 1999-2000.
This paper assesses the extent and policy implications of simultaneous competition among countrie... more This paper assesses the extent and policy implications of simultaneous competition among countries on both corporate tax rates and the provision of public goods used by firms as production factors ('public factors'). First, we derive the relevant theoretical results in a unified framework where a corporate tax is used to finance a public good that raises both household utility and firm productivity. Then, the relevance of such simultaneous competition is tested using data on foreign direct investment from the US to EU member states. Both the theoretical analysis and the empirical results presented in this paper suggest that focusing on the tax side of the competition for the location of multinationals is misleading. It shows that there are grounds for the coexistence of high tax/spending countries and low tax/spending ones. Furthermore, provided multinationals are heterogeneous concerning their use of public factors, the competition for attracting them could take the form of a vertical or horizontal specialisation, whereby each government would seek to attract a certain type of activity through the adequate provision of certain public factors. In this framework, international competition could act as a vector for raising public-sector efficiency rather than as a standardisation factor.
This paper assesses the extent and policy implications of simultaneous competition among countrie... more This paper assesses the extent and policy implications of simultaneous competition among countries on both corporate tax rates and the provision of public goods used by firms as production factors ('public factors'). First, we derive the relevant theoretical results in a unified framework where a corporate tax is used to finance a public good that raises both household utility and firm productivity. Then, the relevance of such simultaneous competition is tested using data on foreign direct investment from the US to EU member states. Both the theoretical analysis and the empirical results presented in this paper suggest that focusing on the tax side of the competition for the location of multinationals is misleading. It shows that there are grounds for the coexistence of high tax/spending countries and low tax/spending ones. Furthermore, provided multinationals are heterogeneous concerning their use of public factors, the competition for attracting them could take the form of a vertical or horizontal specialisation, whereby each government would seek to attract a certain type of activity through the adequate provision of certain public factors. In this framework, international competition could act as a vector for raising public-sector efficiency rather than as a standardisation factor.
This paper assesses the extent and policy implications of simultaneous competition among countrie... more This paper assesses the extent and policy implications of simultaneous competition among countries on both corporate tax rates and the provision of public goods used by firms as production factors ('public factors'). First, we derive the relevant theoretical results in a unified framework where a corporate tax is used to finance a public good that raises both household utility and firm productivity. Then, the relevance of such simultaneous competition is tested using data on foreign direct investment from the US to EU member states. Both the theoretical analysis and the empirical results presented in this paper suggest that focusing on the tax side of the competition for the location of multinationals is misleading. It shows that there are grounds for the coexistence of high tax/spending countries and low tax/spending ones. Furthermore, provided multinationals are heterogeneous concerning their use of public factors, the competition for attracting them could take the form of a vertical or horizontal specialisation, whereby each government would seek to attract a certain type of activity through the adequate provision of certain public factors. In this framework, international competition could act as a vector for raising public-sector efficiency rather than as a standardisation factor.
Euro-dollar : le face-à-face
HAL (Le Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe), Jun 1, 2008
Euro-dollar : le face-à-face
HAL (Le Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe), Jun 1, 2008
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Papers by Agnès Bénassy-quéré