+
Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Article
  • Published:

System-specific aquaculture annual growth rates can mitigate the trilemma of production, pollution and carbon dioxide emissions in China

Nature Food volume 6, pages 365–374 (2025)Cite this article

Subjects

Abstract

The aquaculture sector faces a trilemma of simultaneously boosting production, decreasing nutrient discharges and reducing CO2 emissions. Here we evaluate the growth trajectories and ecological footprints of different aquaculture systems in China, considering both business as usual and ecological transformation scenarios, and anticipate the evolution of sustainable aquaculture in the post-carbon neutrality era. We explore a two-step approach involving ecological transformation and green aquaculture. By adjusting the annual growth rates of six out of nine aquaculture systems, energy use, nitrogen discharge, land use and freshwater usage per unit of mass gain could be reduced by 1.70%, 6.89%, 7.12% and 8.86%, respectively, by 2050 compared with the business as usual levels. Owing to changes in the energy supply mix in China, by 2050, the total CO2 emissions from aquaculture will only increase by 5.7% compared with the level in 2021. Once carbon neutrality is attained, the focus should shift to mitigating nutrient discharges. Our findings underscore the necessity for substantial improvement in the Chinese aquaculture development plan and offer a blueprint for sustainable aquaculture advancement for guiding policy and practice.

Access through your institution
Buy or subscribe

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Access through your institution

Buy this article

  • Purchase on SpringerLink
  • Instant access to full article PDF
Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Fig. 1: Intensification and ecological footprints of aquaculture systems in China.
Fig. 2: The trilemma of aquaculture development and the need for transformation in China.
Fig. 3: Productions and ecological footprints of Chinese aquaculture systems for years 2021, 2030 and 2050.
Fig. 4: Ecological footprints and productions of China’s aquaculture under the BAU and adjusted growth rate scenarios in China.

Similar content being viewed by others

Data availability

The results that support the findings of the study are provided in the main text and Supplementary Information. The sources of all data used in this study are referenced in Methods. The details are as follows: data on production and areas of aquaculture systems were sourced from the China Fishery Statistical Yearbook (China Agriculture Press, 2022, 2024; refs. 14,48). Data on discharge coefficients of pollution sources in aquaculture were taken from the Handbook of the First National Census of Pollution Sources (China Pollution Source Census, 2009; ref. 17). The energy consumption of aquatic products from different aquaculture systems in China was from https://www.china-fishery.com/scxuebao/article/abstract/20101207278 (ref. 16). Information on the total water footprint for freshwater species and mariculture species was derived from previous studies50,51,52. The GHG data were collected from https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-024-01004-y (ref. 45). Source data are provided with this paper.

Code availability

All related codes can be found via GitHub at https://github.com/lujianseng/Aquaculture-Trilemma-.

References

  1. The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2022—Towards Blue Transformation (FAO, 2022).

  2. Froehlich, H. E., Runge, C. A., Gentry, R. R., Gaines, S. D. & Halpern, B. S. Comparative terrestrial feed and land use of an aquaculture-dominant world. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 115, 5295–5300 (2018).

  3. Jillian, P. F. et al. Feed conversion efficiency in aquaculture: do we measure it correctly? Environ. Res. Lett. 13, 024017 (2018).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  4. Naylor, R. L. et al. A 20-year retrospective review of global aquaculture. Nature 591, 551–563 (2021).

    Article  ADS  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  5. Costa-Pierce, B. Sustainable ecological aquaculture systems: the need for a new social contract for aquaculture development. Mar. Technol. Soc. J. 44, 88–112 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Gephart, J. A. et al. Environmental performance of blue foods. Nature 597, 360–365 (2021).

  7. Poore, J. & Nemecek, T. Reducing food’s environmental impacts through producers and consumers. Science 360, 987–992 (2018).

    Article  ADS  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  8. Golden, C. D. et al. Aquatic foods to nourish nations. Nature 598, 315–320 (2021).

    Article  ADS  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  9. Mallapaty, S. How China could be carbon neutral by mid-century. Nature 586, 482–483 (2020).

    Article  ADS  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  10. Hale, T. et al. Net Zero Tracker (Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, 2021).

  11. Dong, S. L. et al. Optimization of aquaculture sustainability through ecological intensification in China. Rev. Aquacult. 14, 1249–1259 (2022).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Song, C. et al. Mariculture structure adjustment to achieve China’s carbon neutrality and mitigate climate change. Sci. Total Environ. 895, 164986 (2023).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  13. Jiang, Q., Bhattarai, N., Pahlow, M. & Xu, Z. Environmental sustainability and footprints of global aquaculture. Resour. Conserv. Recycl. 180, 106183 (2022).

  14. Fisheries Administration Bureau of China, MARA of China, National Fisheries Technology Extension Station, Chinese Society of Fisheries. China Fisheries Statistics Yearbook (China Agriculture Press, 2022).

  15. Dong, S. L., Tian, X. L., Gao, Q. F. & Dong, Y. W. Aquaculture Ecology (Springer, 2023).

  16. Xu, H. et al. The research and development proposals on fishery energy saving and emission reduction in China. J. Fish. China 35, 472–480 (2011).

    Google Scholar 

  17. Handbook of the First National Census of Pollution Sources—Discharge Coefficient of Pollution Sources in Aquaculture (China Pollution Source Census, 2009); https://www.doc88.com/p-037431165661.html

  18. Tidwell, J. Aquaculture Production Systems (Wiley, 2012).

  19. Ma, L., Long, H., Tu, S., Zhang, Y. & Zheng, Y. Farmland transition in China and its policy implications. Land Use Policy 92, 104470 (2020).

  20. Song, M. L., Tao, W. L., Shang, Y. P. & Zhao, X. Spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of China’s urban water resource utilization efficiency from the perspective of sustainable development. J. Clean. Prod. 338, 130649 (2022).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Gentry, R. R. et al. Offshore aquaculture: spatial planning principles for sustainable development. Ecol. Evol. 7, 733–743 (2017).

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  22. Isaacs, J. D. & Schmitta, W. R. Ocean energy: forms and prospects. Science 207, 265–273 (1980).

    Article  ADS  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  23. Kapetsky, J. M., Aguilar-Manjarrez, J. & Jenness, J. A Global Assessment of Potential for Offshore Mariculture Development from a Spatial Perspective. FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper No. 549 (FAO, 2013).

  24. Waite, R. et al. Improving Productivity and Environmental Performance of Aquaculture. Working Paper, Installment 5 of Creating a Sustainable Food Future (World Resources Institute, 2014).

  25. Tang, Q. S., Zhang, J. H. & Fang, J. G. Shellfish and seaweed mariculture increase atmospheric CO2 absorption by coastal ecosystems. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 424, 97–105 (2011).

  26. Morro, B. et al. Offshore aquaculture of finfish: big expectations at sea. Rev. Aquacult. 14, 791–815 (2022).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Nederlof, M. A. J., Verdegem, M. C. J., Smaal, A. C. & Jansen, H. M. Nutrient retention efficiencies in integrated multi-trophic aquaculture. Rev. Aquacult. 14, 1194–1212 (2022).

  28. Zhang, Y. Y. et al. Carbon sequestration processes and mechanisms in coastal mariculture environments in China. Sci. China Earth Sci. 60, 2097–2107 (2017).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  29. Zhang, Y. Y., Liu, D. & Jiao, N. Z. Tapping carbon sequestration potential of blooming macroalgae to mitigate climate change. Ocean-Land-Atmos. Res. 2, 0033 (2023).

  30. Dong, S. L. et al. Advancements and hurdles of deeper-offshore aquaculture in China. Rev. Aquacult. 16, 644–655 (2024).

  31. Soto, D. Integrated Mariculture: A Global Review. FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper, 529 (FAO, 2009).

  32. Daily, G. C. Nature’s Services. Societal Dependence on Natural Ecosystems (Island, 1997).

  33. Chang, B. V. et al. Investigation of a farm-scale multitrophic recirculating aquaculture system with the addition of Rhodovulum sulfidophilum for milkfish (Chanos chanos) coastal aquaculture. Sustainability 11, 1880 (2019).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  34. Su, J., Liang, Y., Ding, L., Zhang, G. & Liu, H. Research on China’s energy development strategy under carbon neutrality. Bull. Chin. Acad. Sci. 36, 1001–1009 (2021).

  35. Liu, J. K. & Cai, Q. H. Integrated aquaculture in Chinese lakes and paddy fields. Ecol. Eng. 11, 49–59 (1998).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  36. National Bureau of Statistics. China Statistical Yearbook (National Statistical Press, 2022); http://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/ndsj/2022/indexch.htm

  37. Nakajima, T., Hudson, M. J., Uchiyama, J., Makibayashi, K. & Zhang, J. Common carp aquaculture in Neolithic China dates back 8,000 years. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 3, 1415–1418 (2019).

  38. Boyd, C. E. & Tucker, C. S. Pond Aquaculture Water Quality Management (Kluwer Academic, 1998).

  39. Takeuchi, T. Application of Recirculating Aquaculture Systems in Japan (Springer, 2017).

  40. Nash, C. E. The History of Aquaculture (Wiley-Blackwell, 2011).

  41. Cao, L. et al. China’s aquaculture and the world’s wild fisheries. Science 347, 133–135 (2015).

    Article  ADS  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  42. Damerau, K., Waha, K. & Herrero, M. The impact of nutrient-rich food choices on agricultural water-use efficiency. Nat. Sustain. 2, 233–241 (2019).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  43. Houston, R. D. et al. Harnessing genomics to fast-track genetic improvement in aquaculture. Nat. Rev. Genet. 21, 389–409 (2020).

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  44. Reverter, M. et al. Aquaculture at the crossroads of global warming and antimicrobial resistance. Nat. Commun. 11, 1870 (2020).

    Article  ADS  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  45. Shen, L. et al. Marine aquaculture can deliver 40% lower carbon footprints than freshwater aquaculture based on feed, energy and biogeochemical cycles. Nat. Food 5, 615–624 (2024).

    Article  ADS  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  46. Bohnes, F. A. & Laurent, A. LCA of aquaculture systems: methodological issues and potential improvements. Int. J. Life Cycle Assess. 24, 324–337 (2019).

  47. Turchini, G. M., Trushenski, J. T. & Glencross, B. D. Thoughts for the future of aquaculture nutrition: realigning perspectives to reflect contemporary issues related to judicious use of marine resources in aquafeeds. N. Am. J. Aquacult. 81, 13–39 (2019).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  48. Fisheries Administration Bureau of China, MARA of China, National Fisheries Technology Extension Station, Chinese Society of Fisheries. China Fisheries Statistics Yearbook (China Agriculture Press, 2024).

  49. Makowski, D., Ben-Shachar, M. S. & Lüdecke, D. bayestestR: describing effects and their uncertainty, existence and significance within the Bayesian framework. J. Open Source Softw. 4, 1541 (2019).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  50. Pahlow, M., van Oel, P. R., Mekonnen, M. M. & Hoekstra, A. Y. Increasing pressure on freshwater resources due to terrestrial feed ingredients for aquaculture production. Sci. Total Environ. 536, 847–857 (2015).

    Article  ADS  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  51. Mohanty, R. K., Ambast, S. K., Panigrahi, P. & Mandal, K. G. Water quality suitability and water use indices: useful management tools in coastal aquaculture of Litopenaeus vannamei. Aquaculture 485, 210–219 (2018).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  52. Ouyang, Y. T. Study on Water Footprint of Freshwater Cultured Fish and Spatial Optimization of Cultured Policy in China. MSc thesis, Dalian Univ. Technology (2018).

  53. Boyd, C. E. & McNevin, A. Aquaculture, Resource Use, and the Environment (Wiley, 2014).

  54. Ecological and Environmental Protection Inspections (Chinese Ministry of Environmental Protection, 2016); https://www.gov.cn/hudong/2016-07/19/content_5092856.htm

  55. Opinions on Accelerating Green Development of Aquaculture (Chinese Government, 2019); https://www.sohu.com/a/294939145_669627

  56. Opinions on Accelerating the Development of Offshore and Deeper Offshore Aquaculture (Chinese Government, 2023); https://www.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengceku/202306/content_6886007.htm

  57. Calculation tools and guidance. Greenhouse Gas Protocol http://www.ghgprotocol.org/calculation-tools/all-tools (accessed September 2023).

Download references

Acknowledgements

This study was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (32373105 (S.-L.D.) and 42025604 (Y.-W.D.)).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Mariculture of Ministry of Education, Fisheries College, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, P. R. China

    Shuang-Lin Dong, Ming Huang, Yun-Xia Sun, Yu-Yang Zhang, Shuang-En Yu, Yan-Gen Zhou, Li Li & Yun-Wei Dong

  2. College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen University, Xiamen, P. R. China

    Ling Cao

  3. School of Mathematical Science, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, P. R. China

    Wen-Jing Liu

Authors
  1. Shuang-Lin Dong
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  2. Ling Cao
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  3. Wen-Jing Liu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  4. Ming Huang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  5. Yun-Xia Sun
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  6. Yu-Yang Zhang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  7. Shuang-En Yu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  8. Yan-Gen Zhou
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  9. Li Li
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  10. Yun-Wei Dong
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

S.-L.D. and Y.-W.D. designed the research. S.-L.D., W.-J.L., M.H., Y.-X.S., Y.-Y.Z., S.-E.Y., Y.-G.Z., L.L. and Y.-W.D. analysed the data and performed the statistical analysis. S.-L.D., Y.-G.Z., L.L. and Y.-W.D. interpreted the data. S.-L.D., L.C. and Y.-W.D. wrote the paper and have primary responsibility for the final content. All of the authors have read and agreed to the published version of the paper.

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Shuang-Lin Dong or Yun-Wei Dong.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Peer review

Peer review information

Nature Food thanks Jiaoshou Liu, Hongfang Lu and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

Additional information

Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary Figs. 1 and 2 and Table 1.

Reporting Summary

Source data

Source Data Fig. 1

Statistical source data.

Source Data Fig. 3

Statistical source data.

Source Data Fig. 4

Statistical source data.

Rights and permissions

Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Dong, SL., Cao, L., Liu, WJ. et al. System-specific aquaculture annual growth rates can mitigate the trilemma of production, pollution and carbon dioxide emissions in China. Nat Food 6, 365–374 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-025-01122-1

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-025-01122-1

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing
点击 这是indexloc提供的php浏览器服务，不要输入任何密码和下载