Fig. 7: Emergent constraints.
From: Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss
a Emergent constraint based on the ensemble regression (ER) between eddy momentum feedback and the zonal wind response index (ZWRI). Black line shows the regression with hatching showing the 95% confidence interval. Horizontal green line shows the constrained ensemble mean response, with the shading showing its 95% confidence interval (Methods). Vertical black line and grey shading shows the mean and range of eddy feedback from the reanalyses. Ellipses show the 95% uncertainties obtained by bootstrapping with replacement the ensemble members. b As a but for the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) response. A one-sided test is used to calculate p values since we expect the response to increase as eddy feedback strengthens. All data are for DJF.