Economic and Social Reports, July 2025

Released: 2025-07-23

There are six new articles available in today's release of Economic and Social Reports.

Men are almost three times more likely than women to be employed in industries dependent on US demand for Canadian exports

Trade tensions between Canada and the United States, which began in early 2025, have raised concerns about workers in industries who depend on US demand for Canadian exports. Using data from the Labour Force Survey, the study "Socioeconomic characteristics of workers in industries dependent on United States demand for Canadian exports" found that 13.3% of men were employed in these industries, compared to 4.9% of women in the period from 2023 to 2024. Among both men and women, older workers and lower educated workers were more likely to be employed in these industries.

Among men, 10.0% of workers aged 15 to 34 years were employed in industries dependent on American demand for Canadian exports compared to 17.4% of 51- to 64-year-olds. Among women, 3.9% of workers aged 15 to 34 years worked in these industries compared to 6.3% of 51- to 64-year-olds.

Among men, 10.6% of workers with a bachelor's degree or above worked in industries dependent on American demand for Canadian exports compared to over 15.0% of workers with a trades certificate, high school diploma or below. Among women, 4.1% of those with a bachelor's degree or above were employed in these industries compared to over 6.0% of those with a trades certificate, high school diploma or below.

Although it is too early to know how many jobs may be lost as a result of increased tariffs and how affected workers might adapt, their socio-economic characteristics may play a role in post-displacement labour market transitions.

Narrowing gap in permanent migration flows between Canada and the United States

Concerns about a Canadian "brain drain" to the United States have been a recurring theme in public discourse and are related to ongoing discussions about cross-border mobility and talent exchange between the two countries. A new study, "Recent trends in immigration from Canada to the United States," compares annual permanent migration flows between the two countries since the 1990s and examines the characteristics of Canadian temporary workers seeking permanent US employment.

Since 2018, the gap in permanent resident flows between the countries has narrowed, unlike the early 1990s to mid-2010s when Canada experienced a net loss in the exchange. The average annual number of Canadian-born individuals gaining US permanent residency fell by 30%, from 15,600 in the late 2000s to 10,900 in the late 2010s, while the number of US-born immigrants to Canada increased. From 2021 to 2023, the United States admitted an average of 11,100 Canadian-born permanent residents annually, compared with an average of 10,100 US-born permanent residents admitted by Canada.

Canadian citizens applying for US labour certification, a key step in obtaining employer-sponsored permanent residency, were highly educated and concentrated in computer, mathematical, architecture, and engineering fields, with median wage offers of $137,000 USD in 2024. However, the number of Canadian citizens pursuing this pathway declined by 26%, from 3,310 in 2015 to 2,460 in 2024. These findings suggest improved retention of skilled Canadian workers in recent years.

Retention of graduates from science, technology, engineering, mathematics and computer science programs in Canada

Research and development in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics and computer science (STEM) are key drivers of economic growth, making the potential brain drain of STEM talent a growing concern. The article "Retention of science, technology, engineering, mathematics and computer science graduates in Canada" examines the retention of STEM graduates in Canada by tracking their tax filing rates in the years following graduation from Canadian postsecondary programs.

Among Canadian students (Canadian-born and permanent residents) who graduated from 2015 to 2020, 89% of all STEM graduates and 86% of those in mathematics and related studies, and computer and information science programs filed tax returns three years after graduation, below the 92% tax-filing rate for non-STEM graduates. Graduates from high-ranking universities had a lower tax-filing rate (84%) than those from other universities and colleges (91%).

International student graduates had much lower tax-filing rates than Canadian students, except those from India. Three years after graduation, 86% of Indian graduates filed tax returns, compared with 56% of Chinese graduates and 29% of US graduates.

These findings provide insight into which groups of STEM graduates are most likely to remain and contribute to Canada's workforce, informing ongoing discussions about talent retention.

Field-of-study alignment rates were higher among former international students than among immigrants who were not former international students

An increasing number of immigrants in Canada started off as international postsecondary students, however there is limited information on whether these individuals are using their skills in the fields for which they were trained. The article "Fields of study and occupations of immigrants who were international students in Canada before immigration" found that among former international students who studied science, technology, engineering, and mathematics and computer science (STEM), 43% had STEM occupations in 2021.

STEM graduates above a bachelor's degree (57%) had a higher field-of-study alignment rate than those with a postsecondary education below a bachelor's degree (22%). The field-of-study alignment rate was highest (57%) among those with a bachelor's degree from health care-related programs and lowest (19%) among those who studied business and administration in postsecondary programs below the bachelor's level.

The overall field-of-study alignment rates were higher among former international students than among immigrants who were not former international students. When compared with Canadian-born graduates, former international students had higher alignment rates in STEM fields but lower rates in the business and administration field and the health care field.

This study can help shape immigration and labour policies by highlighting the use of international students as a sustainable source of skilled labour in areas with labour shortages.

A comparison of technology adoption by diverse characteristics of Canadian business decision-makers

The adoption of advanced technologies, including artificial intelligence, is a strategic imperative for companies that want to succeed in competitive markets by reducing costs, expanding their product range and increasing productivity. The study "Technology adoption and diversity among Canadian business decision makers: Evidence from the survey of advanced technology" reveals significant differences in advanced technology adoption among Canadian business decision-makers based on gender, race, and immigration status.

While 60.6% of Canadian enterprises adopted at least one advanced technology in 2022, adoption rates varied widely across population groups: 63.3% of male decision-makers did so, compared with 53.0% among their female counterparts; 63.5% of non-racialized decision-makers, versus 50.7% among racialized groups; and 63.2% of long-term residents, compared with 33.3% among recent immigrants.

About one-third of these gaps can be explained by business characteristics such as firm size, industry, and location. The remaining differences point to potential barriers that may limit access to technology for underrepresented groups, highlighting the need for more inclusive innovation policies.

Licensed and unlicensed home-based child care in Canada

The Canada-wide early learning and child care (CWELCC) system aims to give families access to flexible, affordable, inclusive, and high-quality early learning and child care programs and services. Home-based child care by non-relatives continues to be widely used in Canada. The study "Characteristics of home-based child care serving children aged 0 to 5 years in Canada, 2021 to 2022" provides a snapshot of home-based child care, and the first national estimates of unlicensed home-based providers, near the beginning of the implementation of the CWELCC system.

In April 2022, 14,435 licensed and 14,022 unlicensed child care homes were providing care to children aged 0 to 5 in Canada. Licensed home-based providers were more likely to have training in Early Childhood Education and charged somewhat higher daily fees for some age groups, while unlicensed homes were more likely to offer part-time and before- or after- school care options. Roughly two-thirds of unlicensed providers reported that they did not see a benefit to becoming licensed or that it was unnecessary given their intended time providing care.

Provider characteristics that were most strongly associated with being licensed included an intention to continue providing home-based care in three years, higher educational attainment, and province or territory of residence. Future research may continue to explore the characteristics of home-based child care during the ongoing implementation of the CWELCC system.

Products

The July 2025 issue of Economic and Social Reports, Vol. 5, no. 07 (36280001), is now available. This issue contains the articles "Fields of study and occupations of immigrants who were international students in Canada before immigration," "Characteristics of home-based child care serving children aged 0 to 5 years in Canada, 2021 to 2022," "Technology adoption and diversity among Canadian business decision makers: Evidence from the survey of advanced technology," "Retention of science, technology, engineering, mathematics and computer science graduates in Canada," "Socioeconomic characteristics of workers in industries dependent on United States demand for Canadian exports" and "Recent trends in immigration from Canada to the United States."

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