Thomas J Thompson’s Post

Kohl’s Spikes in Meme Frenzy as Risk Appetite Quietly Returns Kohl's stock opened more than 100 percent higher this morning, triggered a volatility halt, and remained up over 35 percent by mid-afternoon. There was no earnings release. No investor update. No breakthrough strategy. Just a struggling retailer with falling foot traffic, three years of sales erosion, a morale crisis following its CEO’s recent ouster, and nearly half of its float sold short. Then came the spark - a surge in call option volume more than 360 percent above normal, a wave of speculative chatter across Reddit and Stocktwits, and a familiar cascade of momentum trading. We’ve seen this before. But what makes this moment different is the economic backdrop. This isn’t 2021. Interest rates are still elevated. Inflation, while easing, continues to pressure household budgets. Credit card balances are near record levels, and delinquency rates are rising. The Fed remains cautious. Real wage growth has only recently turned positive. And yet markets are moving with conviction. The Nasdaq is approaching record highs. Mortgage refinancing is accelerating. Equity inflows are picking up. And consumer spending, while uneven, remains surprisingly resilient. The data suggests caution. The behavior suggests something else entirely. That tension is what makes the Kohl’s rally more than a blip. This wasn’t a bet on retail strategy. It was a burst of speculative energy. Retail traders didn’t rush to Kohl’s because they believed in its turnaround. They did it because they saw potential upside in a heavily shorted stock with a recognizable name and a history of being underestimated. The story wasn’t new. But the timing was. Speculative confidence doesn’t reenter the market all at once. It seeps in at the edges. It flares up in places like this where fundamentals haven’t changed, but the emotional climate has. Where traders aren’t investing, but participating. Where the movement matters more than the model. And that shift (from hesitation to action, from waiting to trying) is showing up beyond just meme stocks. We see it in travel, where bookings have recovered despite high prices and limited discounting. In home improvement, where homeowners are refinancing at elevated rates to unlock cash for delayed upgrades. In digital behavior, where consumers are reengaging with AI tools, financial planning apps, and side hustles. These aren’t just transactions. They’re expressions of readiness. Consumers haven’t forgotten the uncertainty of the past few years. But they’re starting to believe that staying still might carry its own risks. At Havas Edge, we watch these moments not because they move markets, but because they signal motion. #marketbehavior #consumerpsychology #performanceeconomy