EU readies 30% retaliatory tariffs

Our latest Bloomberg reporting on EU-US trade tensions. EU plans to hit US with 30% tariffs on about €100 billion of tariffs in a no-deal scenario:  https://lnkd.in/dFg_WvVU

From Boeing to Bourbon: EU Preps $115B Tariff Blow Aug. 1 might trigger the biggest transatlantic tariff clash since the Airbus-Boeing saga and your supply chain could be on the line. Brussels signaled it can live with the 15% “reciprocal” tariff the White House is offering But it has a fully drafted counter-package that would slap 30% duties on $115 billion of U.S. exports such as Boeing jets, Detroit-built SUVs, bourbon and medical devices if talks fail before the 1 Aug. deadline The White House? Planning the same 30% levy on nearly all EU exports. 📉 Oxford Economics says this could cut U.S. GDP by 0.2 pp and push inflation up by 0.3 pp within a year. What’s at risk? -Aviation & autos: Boeing and Detroit in the crosshairs -State-level shockwaves: KY, MI, WA all politically critical states Are Japan deal sets the floor Japan just accepted a 15% U.S. tariff in exchange for $550B in investment pledges setting a clear floor for EU talks. 🤝 Odds of a compromise? 60%, says Eurasia Group. I expect to see a scenario similar to Japan. 👉 C-suites should prepare now and consider quietly backing the 15% middle path. Would your business survive a 30% transatlantic tariff wall? Or is 15% the pragmatic way forward? Let’s discuss. #Tariffs #EUTariffs #Auto #SupplyChain #LinkedInNews

Trade tensions between the U.S. and EU are making headlines, 30% tariffs on $115B worth of goods if no deal is reached by August 1. But markets aren’t reacting like it’s a catastrophe. European equities have been remarkably resilient. The EFA index, which tracks developed markets outside the U.S., is up over 20% this year, compared to 7.9% for the S&P 500. What does this tell us? Markets may expect a deal — tariffs are often a negotiating tool, not a final outcome. Economic impact might be manageable — even if tariffs are enacted, companies and economies adapt. And if a deal is reached? We could see a relief rally across U.S. and European markets — unless, of course, optimism is already priced in. The bigger lesson: Don’t just read the headlines. Look at what markets are signaling. What’s your take — is this priced in, or could a deal still surprise markets? Follow me for more insights that connect global events to your portfolio.

The EU just announced a €100 billion retaliation plan against the U.S.' 30% tariffs. Here's the crisis no one is talking about: International travel is about to get way more expensive. When governments start slapping 30% tariffs on everything from aircraft to bourbon, someone has to pay. Airlines pass aircraft costs to ticket prices. Hotels raise rates when imported goods cost more. Even that bottle of wine at dinner gets pricier. For destinations, this creates a perfect storm. €335 billion worth of trade between the U.S. and EU is now at risk. European visitors might think twice about that NYC trip when flights cost 30% more. American travelers could skip that dream trip to Italy when everything from rental cars to restaurant meals jumps in price. Tourism marketers need to prepare to do three things: 1. Shift messaging to emphasize value. When travel gets expensive, people want to know they're getting their money's worth. 2. Focus on domestic markets. Regional visitors won't face the same cost barriers as international travelers. 3. Partner with local businesses. Supporting local suppliers becomes more important when imported goods spike in price. The preference is still to avoid this trade war entirely. But if talks fail after August 1st, the ripple effects will hit tourism hard. The destinations that adapt fastest will weather this crisis best. -- Building better digital marketing solutions with Noble Studios every day. Follow for more takes on marketing and brand strategy, travel and agency life.

The EU will merge two packages of retaliation measures against U.S. tariffs into a single one that will be ready to use if trade negotiations with the Trump administration go sour, a European Commission spokesperson said today.

Japan's new trade deal with Washington cuts car tariffs to 15% in return for $550 billion in Japanese investment in the U — a win for Japanese auto stocks, but a blow to US carmakers https://reut.rs/4lHA1Ln

While media attention is rightly focused on the Japan-U.S. trade deal, don't overlook what is happening to the long end of the Japanese bond market where, driven mainly by fiscal concerns, yields continue to climb. With what is a correlated, rather than coordinated, fiscal expansion in the three largest advanced economies -- the US, Germany, and Japan -- global bond markets have a lot of issuance to digest in the period ahead. #economy #markets #debt #deficits #bonds #germany #Japan

Details from the US-Japan trade deal: -- Both reciprocal tariffs and auto tariffs will go down to 15% (from 25%) -- There is no limit to the number of cars Japan can export under the 15% rate (unlike the UK deal which caps the low-rate export to 100,000 cars) -- The 15% reciprocal tariff will not be imposed on top of any existing tariffs. Any tariff on Japanese goods will be capped at 15% (Except for steel and aluminum, 50%, which is not part of the deal) -- Japan will not reduce its tariffs, including on agriculture -- Japan will keep its 770,000 ton quota of tariff-free rice imports. However, it will increase the share of US rice within that quota -- The much-watched increase of Japan's defense spending is not part of the agreement

Big in Japan! Today's big story: * US signs a trade deal with Japan reduced broad based tariffs to 15% (from the 25% that was touted). * PM Ishiba confirmed that does include cars. Around 80% of Japan’s trade surplus with the US is in cars and auto parts. * Also includes a pledge for Japan to invest $550b into the US (reminiscent of the GCC pledges back in May) * Japan to form a JV with the US in Alaska to export LNG . This is a $44bn export project which has not yet managed to secure binding long- term contracts. Unclear if this agreement will allow the plan to move forward. AND: a short while ago, local media were reporting that the Japanese PM Ishiba will announce his resignation by the end of August. This after losing a majority in the Upper House elections over the weekend and coming under increasing political pressure to step down. How are markets reacting? En fuego: - Nikkei + 3.2% - Carmakers soaring: Toyota + 12% , ,Subaru + 15% - JGBs : 10y + 9bps , back to the yield HIGHS of the year and very close to the highest levels since 2008 (!) * Notably: front end JGBs have repriced. Market is now pricing in about an 88% chance of a BOJ rate hike by the end of the year, compared with about 59% a day earlier. - USDJPY : Yen a tad weaker vs the $ today (0.2%). Though if a hike is back on the table, the weakness may be short-lived European Equity futures pointed to open +1.1%. Let's see whether the Europeans can also clinch a deal by August 1st and whether that can save the European auto industry. (Stellantis warned of a $2.7bn loss for H1 2025 yesterday due to tariffs and other charges)

President Trump said the U.S. "just completed a massive deal with Japan, perhaps the largest deal ever made." As part of the deal, U.S. importers will pay 15% “reciprocal” tariffs on Japanese goods exported to the U.S. Japan will invest $550 billion dollars into the U.S., according to Trump. The U.S. will “receive 90% of the profits," he added. Trump said that Japan will “open their country to trade including cars and trucks, rice and certain other agricultural products and other things.” The president also said “this deal will create hundreds of thousands of jobs."