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ARIMA_PLUS: Large-scale, Accurate, Automatic and Interpretable In-Database Time Series Forecasting and Anomaly Detection in Google BigQuery
Authors:
Xi Cheng,
Weijie Shen,
Haoming Chen,
Chaoyi Shen,
Jean Ortega,
Jiashang Liu,
Steve Thomas,
Honglin Zheng,
Haoyun Wu,
Yuxiang Li,
Casey Lichtendahl,
Jenny Ortiz,
Gang Liu,
Haiyang Qi,
Omid Fatemieh,
Chris Fry,
Jing Jing Long
Abstract:
Time series forecasting and anomaly detection are common tasks for practitioners in industries such as retail, manufacturing, advertising and energy. Two unique challenges stand out: (1) efficiently and accurately forecasting time series or detecting anomalies in large volumes automatically; and (2) ensuring interpretability of results to effectively incorporate business insights. We present ARIMA…
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Time series forecasting and anomaly detection are common tasks for practitioners in industries such as retail, manufacturing, advertising and energy. Two unique challenges stand out: (1) efficiently and accurately forecasting time series or detecting anomalies in large volumes automatically; and (2) ensuring interpretability of results to effectively incorporate business insights. We present ARIMA_PLUS, a novel framework to overcome these two challenges by a unique combination of (a) accurate and interpretable time series models and (b) scalable and fully managed system infrastructure. The model has a sequential and modular structure to handle different components of the time series, including holiday effects, seasonality, trend, and anomalies, which enables high interpretability of the results. Novel enhancements are made to each module, and a unified framework is established to address both forecasting and anomaly detection tasks simultaneously. In terms of accuracy, its comprehensive benchmark on the 42 public datasets in the Monash forecasting repository shows superior performance over not only well-established statistical alternatives (such as ETS, ARIMA, TBATS, Prophet) but also newer neural network models (such as DeepAR, N-BEATS, PatchTST, TimeMixer). In terms of infrastructure, it is directly built into the query engine of BigQuery in Google Cloud. It uses a simple SQL interface and automates tedious technicalities such as data cleaning and model selection. It automatically scales with managed cloud computational and storage resources, making it possible to forecast 100 million time series using only 1.5 hours with a throughput of more than 18000 time series per second. In terms of interpretability, we present several case studies to demonstrate time series insights it generates and customizability it offers.
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Submitted 28 October, 2025;
originally announced October 2025.
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Gemini 2.5: Pushing the Frontier with Advanced Reasoning, Multimodality, Long Context, and Next Generation Agentic Capabilities
Authors:
Gheorghe Comanici,
Eric Bieber,
Mike Schaekermann,
Ice Pasupat,
Noveen Sachdeva,
Inderjit Dhillon,
Marcel Blistein,
Ori Ram,
Dan Zhang,
Evan Rosen,
Luke Marris,
Sam Petulla,
Colin Gaffney,
Asaf Aharoni,
Nathan Lintz,
Tiago Cardal Pais,
Henrik Jacobsson,
Idan Szpektor,
Nan-Jiang Jiang,
Krishna Haridasan,
Ahmed Omran,
Nikunj Saunshi,
Dara Bahri,
Gaurav Mishra,
Eric Chu
, et al. (3410 additional authors not shown)
Abstract:
In this report, we introduce the Gemini 2.X model family: Gemini 2.5 Pro and Gemini 2.5 Flash, as well as our earlier Gemini 2.0 Flash and Flash-Lite models. Gemini 2.5 Pro is our most capable model yet, achieving SoTA performance on frontier coding and reasoning benchmarks. In addition to its incredible coding and reasoning skills, Gemini 2.5 Pro is a thinking model that excels at multimodal unde…
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In this report, we introduce the Gemini 2.X model family: Gemini 2.5 Pro and Gemini 2.5 Flash, as well as our earlier Gemini 2.0 Flash and Flash-Lite models. Gemini 2.5 Pro is our most capable model yet, achieving SoTA performance on frontier coding and reasoning benchmarks. In addition to its incredible coding and reasoning skills, Gemini 2.5 Pro is a thinking model that excels at multimodal understanding and it is now able to process up to 3 hours of video content. Its unique combination of long context, multimodal and reasoning capabilities can be combined to unlock new agentic workflows. Gemini 2.5 Flash provides excellent reasoning abilities at a fraction of the compute and latency requirements and Gemini 2.0 Flash and Flash-Lite provide high performance at low latency and cost. Taken together, the Gemini 2.X model generation spans the full Pareto frontier of model capability vs cost, allowing users to explore the boundaries of what is possible with complex agentic problem solving.
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Submitted 16 October, 2025; v1 submitted 7 July, 2025;
originally announced July 2025.
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The FACTS Grounding Leaderboard: Benchmarking LLMs' Ability to Ground Responses to Long-Form Input
Authors:
Alon Jacovi,
Andrew Wang,
Chris Alberti,
Connie Tao,
Jon Lipovetz,
Kate Olszewska,
Lukas Haas,
Michelle Liu,
Nate Keating,
Adam Bloniarz,
Carl Saroufim,
Corey Fry,
Dror Marcus,
Doron Kukliansky,
Gaurav Singh Tomar,
James Swirhun,
Jinwei Xing,
Lily Wang,
Madhu Gurumurthy,
Michael Aaron,
Moran Ambar,
Rachana Fellinger,
Rui Wang,
Zizhao Zhang,
Sasha Goldshtein
, et al. (1 additional authors not shown)
Abstract:
We introduce FACTS Grounding, an online leaderboard and associated benchmark that evaluates language models' ability to generate text that is factually accurate with respect to given context in the user prompt. In our benchmark, each prompt includes a user request and a full document, with a maximum length of 32k tokens, requiring long-form responses. The long-form responses are required to be ful…
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We introduce FACTS Grounding, an online leaderboard and associated benchmark that evaluates language models' ability to generate text that is factually accurate with respect to given context in the user prompt. In our benchmark, each prompt includes a user request and a full document, with a maximum length of 32k tokens, requiring long-form responses. The long-form responses are required to be fully grounded in the provided context document while fulfilling the user request. Models are evaluated using automated judge models in two phases: (1) responses are disqualified if they do not fulfill the user request; (2) they are judged as accurate if the response is fully grounded in the provided document. The automated judge models were comprehensively evaluated against a held-out test-set to pick the best prompt template, and the final factuality score is an aggregate of multiple judge models to mitigate evaluation bias. The FACTS Grounding leaderboard will be actively maintained over time, and contains both public and private splits to allow for external participation while guarding the integrity of the leaderboard. It can be found at https://www.kaggle.com/facts-leaderboard.
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Submitted 6 January, 2025;
originally announced January 2025.
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Gemini 1.5: Unlocking multimodal understanding across millions of tokens of context
Authors:
Gemini Team,
Petko Georgiev,
Ving Ian Lei,
Ryan Burnell,
Libin Bai,
Anmol Gulati,
Garrett Tanzer,
Damien Vincent,
Zhufeng Pan,
Shibo Wang,
Soroosh Mariooryad,
Yifan Ding,
Xinyang Geng,
Fred Alcober,
Roy Frostig,
Mark Omernick,
Lexi Walker,
Cosmin Paduraru,
Christina Sorokin,
Andrea Tacchetti,
Colin Gaffney,
Samira Daruki,
Olcan Sercinoglu,
Zach Gleicher,
Juliette Love
, et al. (1112 additional authors not shown)
Abstract:
In this report, we introduce the Gemini 1.5 family of models, representing the next generation of highly compute-efficient multimodal models capable of recalling and reasoning over fine-grained information from millions of tokens of context, including multiple long documents and hours of video and audio. The family includes two new models: (1) an updated Gemini 1.5 Pro, which exceeds the February…
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In this report, we introduce the Gemini 1.5 family of models, representing the next generation of highly compute-efficient multimodal models capable of recalling and reasoning over fine-grained information from millions of tokens of context, including multiple long documents and hours of video and audio. The family includes two new models: (1) an updated Gemini 1.5 Pro, which exceeds the February version on the great majority of capabilities and benchmarks; (2) Gemini 1.5 Flash, a more lightweight variant designed for efficiency with minimal regression in quality. Gemini 1.5 models achieve near-perfect recall on long-context retrieval tasks across modalities, improve the state-of-the-art in long-document QA, long-video QA and long-context ASR, and match or surpass Gemini 1.0 Ultra's state-of-the-art performance across a broad set of benchmarks. Studying the limits of Gemini 1.5's long-context ability, we find continued improvement in next-token prediction and near-perfect retrieval (>99%) up to at least 10M tokens, a generational leap over existing models such as Claude 3.0 (200k) and GPT-4 Turbo (128k). Finally, we highlight real-world use cases, such as Gemini 1.5 collaborating with professionals on completing their tasks achieving 26 to 75% time savings across 10 different job categories, as well as surprising new capabilities of large language models at the frontier; when given a grammar manual for Kalamang, a language with fewer than 200 speakers worldwide, the model learns to translate English to Kalamang at a similar level to a person who learned from the same content.
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Submitted 16 December, 2024; v1 submitted 8 March, 2024;
originally announced March 2024.
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One-Year In: COVID-19 Research at the International Level in CORD-19 Data
Authors:
Caroline S. Wagner,
Xiaojing Cai,
Yi Zhang,
Caroline V. Fry
Abstract:
The appearance of a novel coronavirus in late 2019 radically changed the community of researchers working on coronaviruses since the 2002 SARS epidemic. In 2020, coronavirus-related publications grew by 20 times over the previous two years, with 130,000 more researchers publishing on related topics. The United States, the United Kingdom and China led dozens of nations working on coronavirus prior…
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The appearance of a novel coronavirus in late 2019 radically changed the community of researchers working on coronaviruses since the 2002 SARS epidemic. In 2020, coronavirus-related publications grew by 20 times over the previous two years, with 130,000 more researchers publishing on related topics. The United States, the United Kingdom and China led dozens of nations working on coronavirus prior to the pandemic, but leadership consolidated among these three nations in 2020, which collectively accounted for 50% of all papers, garnering well more than 60% of citations. China took an early lead on COVID-19 research, but dropped rapidly in production and international participation through the year. Europe showed an opposite pattern, beginning slowly in publications but growing in contributions during the year. The share of internationally collaborative publications dropped from pre-pandemic rates; single-authored publications grew. For all nations, including China, the number of publications about COVID track closely with the outbreak of COVID-19 cases. Lower-income nations participate very little in COVID-19 research in 2020. Topic maps of internationally collaborative work show the rise of patient care and public health clusters, two topics that were largely absent from coronavirus research in the two years prior to 2020. Findings are consistent with global science as a self-organizing system operating on a reputation-based dynamic.
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Submitted 1 February, 2022;
originally announced February 2022.